[{"content":"Most options traders scale their positions the wrong way. When they want to increase exposure, they default to adding more contracts. More contracts equals more premium, so it seems logical. But ten years of market data suggests there\u0026rsquo;s a better approach: increase your delta first, then add contracts.\nThe Two Ways to Scale Say you\u0026rsquo;re selling 20 delta puts and want to double your exposure. You have two choices:\nAdd contracts: Sell two 20 delta puts instead of one Increase delta: Sell one 40 delta put instead Both give you the same total delta exposure (~40). Both collect more premium. But the risk profiles are dramatically different.\nWhat the Research Shows A tastylive study analyzing ten years of SPY data (2016–present) compared these two scaling approaches across 45-day options managed at 21 days to expiration.\nAdding Contracts Looks Good at First When you sell two 16 delta strangles instead of one 32 delta strangle:\nWin rate improves by ~5% Average profit increases by 88% For short puts, two 20 delta puts versus one 40 delta put:\nAverage profit increases by 26% Higher win rates and more profit. What\u0026rsquo;s not to like?\nThe Hidden Cost: Tail Risk Here\u0026rsquo;s the problem. Adding contracts significantly increases your tail risk:\nMetric Two 16Δ Strangles vs One 32Δ Two 20Δ Puts vs One 40Δ Return variability (std dev) +39% +18% Tail risk increase +73% +71% Max drawdown +31% +42% CVaR (expected shortfall) +37% +18% The wider P\u0026amp;L distribution means bigger swings both for and against you. When short premium trades go wrong, they go really wrong — and adding contracts amplifies that tail risk substantially.\nWhy Delta First Makes Sense When you increase delta by moving closer to the money:\nYou collect more premium per contract Your breakeven moves further from the current price Your tail risk remains more controlled The position behaves more predictably Selling ITM or near-ATM options with higher delta exposure concentrates your risk in a more manageable way. You\u0026rsquo;re taking a more directional stance with defined characteristics rather than doubling your binary risk across two separate positions.\nThe Broader Implications This research challenges conventional wisdom about position sizing. Most traders think in terms of contract count because it\u0026rsquo;s tangible — two contracts feels like twice the exposure of one. But delta is the actual measure of directional exposure and risk.\nThe \u0026ldquo;contracts kill\u0026rdquo; principle tastylive emphasizes applies here: units of risk matter more than the number of contracts. A single 40 delta put carries different risk characteristics than two 20 delta puts, even though the nominal delta exposure appears equivalent.\nPractical Application If you\u0026rsquo;re currently selling 20 delta strangles or ATM options and want to scale:\nFirst, experiment with 30–40 delta positions Get comfortable with the closer-to-the-money risk profile Only after maxing out delta on your comfort zone should you add contracts Consider ITM options for selling when you want higher premium collection with better-defined risk This approach requires a mindset shift. Selling closer to the money feels riskier because your strikes are nearer to current price. But the data suggests the alternative — staying far OTM and adding contracts — actually creates more hidden tail risk.\nKey Takeaway When scaling short premium positions, prioritize delta expansion over contract multiplication. The improved risk-adjusted returns and reduced tail exposure make it the structurally superior approach, even if it feels counterintuitive at first.\nSource: This insight was derived from 2026-04-04 – Journal\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/why-you-should-increase-delta-before-adding-contracts-blog-post-f56edc9b/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eMost options traders scale their positions the wrong way. When they want to increase exposure, they default to adding more contracts. More contracts equals more premium, so it seems logical. But ten years of market data suggests there\u0026rsquo;s a better approach: increase your delta first, then add contracts.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"the-two-ways-to-scale\"\u003eThe Two Ways to Scale\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSay you\u0026rsquo;re selling 20 delta puts and want to double your exposure. You have two choices:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAdd contracts\u003c/strong\u003e: Sell two 20 delta puts instead of one\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eIncrease delta\u003c/strong\u003e: Sell one 40 delta put instead\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBoth give you the same total delta exposure (~40). Both collect more premium. But the risk profiles are dramatically different.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Why you should increase delta before adding contracts when scaling options trades"},{"content":" Source: This post was derived from research compiled in April 2025.\nOver the past two decades, India\u0026rsquo;s fiscal landscape has undergone dramatic transformations. From the disciplined consolidation of the FRBM era to the unprecedented borrowing surge during COVID-19, the government\u0026rsquo;s debt dynamics reveal much about the country\u0026rsquo;s economic priorities and constraints.\nThis analysis draws from official data published by the Reserve Bank of India, the Ministry of Finance, and the Department of Economic Affairs to track how interest payments and new borrowings have evolved relative to the budget and GDP.\nThe Big Picture Metric 2004-05 2024-25 Trend Interest Payments (% of GDP) ~4.0% ~3.6% ↓ U-shaped (fell to 2.9%, then rose) Interest Payments (% of Budget) ~24-26% ~20-30% ↑ Rising burden Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) ~4.1% ~4.8% → Stable with spikes New Borrowings (₹ Crore) ~1,05,000 ~14,50,000 ↑ 14x increase Debt-to-GDP Ratio ~74% ~82% ↑ Peaked at 89% (COVID) Part 1: Interest Payments — The U-Shaped Trajectory The 20-Year Journey Interest payments as a percentage of GDP followed a distinct U-shaped pattern over two decades:\nPeriod Trend Key Drivers 2004-08 (FRBM Era) 4.0% → 3.4% ↓ The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003 mandated fiscal consolidation 2008-10 (GFC) 3.4% → 3.8% ↑ Stimulus borrowing increased debt stock following the global financial crisis 2010-19 (Consolidation) 3.8% → 2.9% ↓ Gradual deficit reduction through sustained fiscal discipline 2019-24 (COVID+) 2.9% → 3.6% ↑ Massive borrowing surge to fund pandemic response Critical finding: Interest payment growth accelerated significantly post-COVID — from 8.8% annually (FY16-20) to 14.9% annually (FY21-24).\nInterest Payments vs. the Budget Year Share of Total Expenditure FY04 ~24-26% FY08 ~22-24% FY12 ~25-28% FY19 ~23-25% FY22 ~20% (single largest component) FY24 Exceeded 30% of revenue expenditure For the first time in FY24, interest payments (3.6% of GDP) exceeded capital expenditure (3.2% of GDP). This is a structural concern because every rupee spent on interest is a rupee not available for infrastructure, education, or healthcare — the investments that drive long-term growth.\nThe Growing Interest Bill (Absolute Numbers) Year Interest Payment Growth Rate FY18 ₹5.31 lakh crore — FY20 ₹5.81 lakh crore ~4.7% p.a. FY22 ₹8.05 lakh crore ~18% spike FY24 ₹10.71 lakh crore ~16% growth The Economic Survey 2023-24 shows interest payments now consume 20-25% of the Union Budget — the single largest expenditure item.\nPart 2: New Borrowings — The 14x Expansion Fiscal Deficit as Borrowing Proxy The fiscal deficit represents the gap between government spending and revenue — essentially, how much new borrowing is needed each year.\nYear Fiscal Deficit (% GDP) Event 2004-05 4.1% — 2007-08 3.1% Pre-GFC low 2008-09 6.0% Global Financial Crisis 2009-10 6.5% Stimulus peak 2018-19 3.4% Pre-COVID low 2020-21 9.2% COVID-19 pandemic peak 2024-25 4.8% Normalizing toward FRBM targets Market Borrowings in Absolute Terms Year Gross Market Borrowings (₹ Crore) vs Budget Size 2004-05 ~1,05,000 ~22% of expenditure 2010-11 ~4,09,000 ~37% of expenditure 2014-15 ~5,92,000 ~33% of expenditure 2020-21 ~12,80,000 ~31% of expenditure 2023-24 ~15,43,000 ~34% of expenditure 2024-25 ~14,50,000 ~30% of expenditure Borrowings increased approximately 14x in absolute terms over 20 years. However, as a percentage of GDP, the increase was more modest due to higher nominal GDP growth — from ₹32.9 lakh crore (2004-05) to ₹330.7 lakh crore (2024-25).\nThe Strategic Shift: Internal vs External Debt One of India\u0026rsquo;s most significant fiscal achievements has been the deliberate reduction of external debt exposure:\nPeriod Internal External Key Change 2004-05 ~92% ~8% — 2010-11 ~94% ~6% Shift to domestic financing 2020-21 ~95% ~5% COVID response relied mostly on domestic borrowing 2024-25 ~96% ~4% External debt at minimal levels According to the DEA\u0026rsquo;s External Debt Report 2024-25, external debt now constitutes only 19.1% of GDP, with foreign exchange reserves covering 90.8% of external obligations. This structural de-risking protects India from currency crises and external shocks that have historically destabilized emerging economies.\nThe Debt Stock Explosion Year End Total Debt Debt/GDP 2004 ~₹25 lakh crore ~74% 2014 ~₹60 lakh crore ~55% 2019 ~₹90 lakh crore ~51% 2021 ~₹140 lakh crore ~89% 2024 ~₹204 lakh crore ~82% The debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 89% during COVID (2020-21) and has since stabilized around 82%, still well above the FRBM Committee\u0026rsquo;s aspirational target of 40%.\nPart 3: The Critical Relationship The Lag Effect Interest payments lag borrowings by 2-3 years. This means today\u0026rsquo;s interest bill primarily reflects borrowing from 2021-2022, not current fiscal policy. The COVID-era deficit spike of 9.2% will continue driving interest payments through 2030.\nPeriod Interest/GDP Fiscal Deficit/GDP Relationship 2004-08 4.0% → 3.4% 4.1% → 3.1% Both declining (FRBM success) 2008-10 3.4% → 3.8% 3.1% → 6.5% Deficit spike precedes interest rise 2010-19 3.8% → 2.9% 6.5% → 3.4% Both declining (consolidation) 2019-24 2.9% → 3.6% 3.4% → 9.2% → 4.8% COVID shock, then normalization The Paradox: Budget Share vs GDP Share Metric FY04 FY14 FY24 Change Interest/Budget ~25% ~23% ~24% → Stable Interest/GDP ~4.0% ~3.2% ~3.6% ↑ Rising Interest as a percentage of the budget has remained remarkably stable (~24%), but it\u0026rsquo;s rising as a percentage of GDP because budget expenditure is growing faster than GDP. This reveals a structural expansion of government spending relative to economic output.\nFive Critical Implications 1. The Debt Trap Risk Interest payments are growing at 14.9% annually (post-COVID), exceeding nominal GDP growth (~10-11%). If this trajectory continues, debt servicing will consume an ever-larger share of national income, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.\n2. Fiscal Space Erosion In FY24, interest payments (₹10.7 lakh crore) exceeded capital expenditure outlay. This means the government is spending more on past obligations than on future growth. With 20-25% of the budget consumed by interest alone, there\u0026rsquo;s limited room for new initiatives without either raising taxes or borrowing even more.\n3. Successful De-risking The shift from 8% to 4% external debt is a genuine policy success. With 96% domestic financing, India has eliminated the currency mismatch risk that triggered crises in Asia (1997) and Argentina (2001-2002). The RBI\u0026rsquo;s public debt statistics confirm this stability.\n4. Structural Challenge At 82% debt-to-GDP (vs. the 40% FRBM target), India carries a heavy legacy. Even with perfect fiscal discipline today, the high debt stock guarantees substantial interest burdens for decades. This is the \u0026ldquo;legacy effect\u0026rdquo; — past borrowing constrains future options.\n5. The COVID Hangover The FY21 deficit spike (9.2%) will drive interest payments through the 2020s. With a weighted average cost of borrowing around 7.3% and large debt maturities coming due in 2025-2030, refinancing risk is substantial.\nPolicy Context: Three Defining Moments 1. FRBM Act, 2003 The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act mandated:\nElimination of revenue deficit by 2009 Fiscal deficit cap of 3% of GDP Transparency requirements Outcome: Initially successful — deficit fell from 5.8% to 2.6% by 2008. However, targets were repeatedly relaxed following the GFC and completely abandoned during COVID.\n2. Global Financial Crisis (2008-09) The government abandoned fiscal targets to implement stimulus packages:\nDeficit spiked from 3.1% to 6.0% Market borrowings surged Interest payments rose over subsequent years 3. COVID-19 Response (2020-21) India\u0026rsquo;s fiscal response differed from the \u0026ldquo;waterfall\u0026rdquo; stimulus approach of Western nations:\nDeficit peaked at 9.2% of GDP ₹50+ lakh crore added to debt in just two years Long-term interest burden permanently increased Part 4: The Interest-to-Borrowing Ratio — Measuring the Debt Trap The Critical Relationship While analyzing interest payments and new borrowings separately reveals important trends, the ratio between them exposes the true structural challenge facing India\u0026rsquo;s fiscal position. This ratio answers a critical question: Of every ₹100 the government borrows, how much goes to service old debt versus funding new priorities?\nInterest Payments vs New Borrowings: The Ratio Over Time Year Interest Payments (₹ Crore) Gross Market Borrowings (₹ Crore) Ratio 2004-05 ~105,000 ~105,000 ~100% 2010-11 ~280,000 ~409,000 ~68% 2014-15 ~402,000 ~592,000 ~68% 2019-20 ~581,000 ~780,000 ~74% 2020-21 ~680,000 ~12,80,000 ~53% 2023-24 ~1,071,000 ~15,43,000 ~69% 2025-26 (BE) ~1,404,000 ~14,50,000 ~97% Four Critical Insights from the Ratio 1. The Debt Servicing Trap Threshold Economists identify 50% as a warning threshold — when interest payments exceed half of new borrowings, a government enters a \u0026ldquo;debt servicing trap\u0026rdquo; where an increasing share of fresh debt funds past obligations rather than new investment.\nThe ratio has remained elevated, averaging 60-70% through FY24 The FY26 projection of ~97% signals an alarming convergence: nearly every rupee borrowed will service old debt 2. The COVID Distortion The ratio dropped to ~53% in FY21 not because interest payments fell, but because borrowings spiked to unprecedented levels (₹12.8 lakh crore). This created a temporary statistical reprieve — but as borrowing normalized while interest payments continued their upward trajectory, the ratio snapped back to ~69% by FY24 and approaches ~97% in FY26 projections.\nKey Insight: The COVID-era borrowing surge masked the underlying structural problem. As borrowing returns to pre-pandemic patterns relative to GDP, the true cost of the debt stock becomes visible.\n3. Interest vs Capital Expenditure — The Opportunity Cost In FY24, for the first time, interest payments exceeded capital expenditure:\nCategory FY24 Outlay Interest Payments ₹10.71 lakh crore Capital Expenditure ~₹9.5 lakh crore Difference ~₹1.2 lakh crore This represents a structural inversion: the government now spends more on past obligations than on future growth. Every percentage point increase in the interest-to-borrowing ratio further constrains fiscal space for infrastructure, education, and healthcare.\n4. International Comparison — Why India\u0026rsquo;s Burden is Heavier While India\u0026rsquo;s debt-to-GDP ratio (~82%) is lower than the US (~125%) or Japan (~220%), the interest burden as a share of borrowing is significantly higher:\nCountry Interest as % of Budget Interest as % of New Borrowings (Est.) India ~20% ~69-97% United States ~12.9% ~25-30% China ~4-5% ~15-20% Germany ~1-2% ~5-8% Japan Low single digits ~10-15% Why the difference? India\u0026rsquo;s government borrows at ~7.3% weighted average cost, compared to:\nUS: ~3-4% Germany: ~1-2% Japan: Near zero (sometimes negative) Higher domestic interest rates, while reflecting India\u0026rsquo;s growth dynamics and inflation target, make debt servicing disproportionately expensive.\nThe Primary Deficit: When All Borrowing Services Old Debt A crucial metric for understanding the interest-to-borrowing relationship is the primary deficit (fiscal deficit minus interest payments). This reveals how much government borrowing actually funds new spending versus debt service:\nYear Primary Deficit (% GDP) What It Means FY20 1.7% Borrowing funded both interest and new spending FY21 7.3% COVID response required massive new borrowing FY23 1.3% Consolidation underway FY24 0.8% Most borrowing went to interest FY25 0.1% Borrowing ≈ Interest payments FY26 (BE) ~0.0% All borrowing services old debt Critical Threshold: When primary deficit approaches zero, the government is borrowing exclusively to pay interest on past debt — no new productive spending is being financed through deficit.\nThe Total Debt Servicing Burden Looking beyond just interest payments, the government\u0026rsquo;s total debt servicing (interest + principal redemptions) tells an even starker story:\nComponent FY26 (BE) Amount Interest Payments ₹14.04 lakh crore Principal Redemptions ₹5.46 lakh crore Total Debt Servicing ₹19.50 lakh crore Gross Market Borrowing ₹14.50 lakh crore Gap ₹5.00 lakh crore The borrowing shortfall: Total debt servicing (₹19.5L Cr) exceeds gross borrowing (₹14.5L Cr) by ₹5 lakh crore. This gap must be filled through additional market borrowing, further increasing future interest obligations — a self-reinforcing cycle.\nWhat the Ratio Signals for Fiscal Health According to the CAG Report on FRBM Compliance 2023-24, interest payments now absorb 35.72% of revenue receipts — up from 33.99% in FY21-22. This rising share, combined with the interest-to-borrowing ratio approaching 97%, indicates:\nStructural Deleveraging Difficulty: Even with fiscal discipline and GDP growth outpacing debt accumulation (debt-to-GDP fell from 89% to 82%), the lag effect of COVID-era borrowing ensures interest payments will remain elevated through the 2020s.\nRevenue Pressure: With over one-third of revenue receipts directed to interest, the government has limited fiscal space for counter-cyclical spending during economic downturns or external shocks.\nThe Compounding Challenge: Interest payments are growing at 14.9% annually (post-COVID) while new borrowings grow at ~8-10%. If this divergence continues, the ratio will exceed 100% — meaning India would need to borrow more than its annual requirements just to pay interest.\nThe Way Forward The interest-to-borrowing ratio highlights why India\u0026rsquo;s fiscal challenge is structural, not cyclical:\nRefinancing Strategy: With large debt maturities coming due in 2025-30, securing lower-cost refinancing will be critical Revenue Growth: The ratio can only improve through faster revenue growth (tax base expansion) or lower borrowing costs Expenditure Efficiency: Every rupee of wasteful spending today becomes future interest burden Bottom line: The ~97% ratio projected for FY26 means India is approaching a fiscal inflection point where debt dynamics could become self-reinforcing. Breaking this cycle requires sustained primary surplus generation (revenue exceeding non-interest expenditure) — a target that remains elusive in the current fiscal framework.\nData Sources Source Data Type URL RBI Public Debt Statistics Time series debt data https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/FS_PDS.aspx Economic Survey 2025-26 Fiscal developments, primary deficit trends https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/ Ministry of Finance Budget Documents Annual budget data, borrowing projections https://www.indiabudget.gov.in DEA External Debt Report 2024-25 External debt composition https://dea.gov.in/files/external_debt_documents/Ex%20Debt%20Report%202024-25_Final.pdf CAG Report on FRBM Compliance 2023-24 Interest payments as % of revenue receipts https://cag.gov.in/ World Bank Debt Data International comparisons https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS KBS Sidhu Budget Analysis 2026-27 Interest-to-borrowing ratio, fiscal analysis https://kbssidhu.substack.com/p/indias-budget-202627-and-the-debt Carnegie Endowment Analysis Fiscal policy changes 2014-2024 https://carnegieendowment.org/india/ideas-and-institutions/looking-back-at-changes-in-fiscal-policy-from-2014-to-2024 IMF Article IV Consultation Debt sustainability assessment https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2024/ Bottom Line India successfully reduced its interest burden from 2003-2019 through sustained fiscal consolidation. However, COVID-era borrowing — adding ₹50+ lakh crore to the debt stock in just two years — has reversed two decades of progress.\nInterest payments are now the fastest-growing budget item, expanding at 14.9% annually. This constrains fiscal flexibility and creates difficult tradeoffs: either raise taxes (politically difficult), cut expenditure (socially painful), or continue borrowing (fiscally risky).\nThe government\u0026rsquo;s strategic success in reducing external debt exposure provides important protection against external shocks. But the domestic debt overhang — now at 82% of GDP — will constrain policy choices for years to come.\nFor policymakers, the lesson is clear: fiscal discipline is easy to abandon and hard to restore. The FRBM framework, while imperfect, provided crucial guardrails that prevented the debt accumulation seen in the 1980s. Rebuilding those guardrails — while managing the legacy of COVID-era borrowing — will be the defining fiscal challenge of the 2020s.\nAnalysis compiled from RBI, Ministry of Finance, Economic Survey, World Bank, CAG, and IMF data. Last updated: April 2026.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/india-interest-payments-and-borrowings-analysis-blog-post-e01c409d/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This post was derived from research compiled in April 2025.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOver the past two decades, India\u0026rsquo;s fiscal landscape has undergone dramatic transformations. From the disciplined consolidation of the FRBM era to the unprecedented borrowing surge during COVID-19, the government\u0026rsquo;s debt dynamics reveal much about the country\u0026rsquo;s economic priorities and constraints.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis analysis draws from official data published by the \u003ca href=\"https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/FS_PDS.aspx\"\u003eReserve Bank of India\u003c/a\u003e, the \u003ca href=\"https://www.indiabudget.gov.in\"\u003eMinistry of Finance\u003c/a\u003e, and the \u003ca href=\"https://dea.gov.in/\"\u003eDepartment of Economic Affairs\u003c/a\u003e to track how interest payments and new borrowings have evolved relative to the budget and GDP.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"India's interest payments and borrowings over two decades"},{"content":" Source: This post was derived from Buffett Indicator - Market Cap to GDP Ratio\nWarren Buffett once called it \u0026ldquo;probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.\u0026rdquo; He was talking about the ratio of total stock market capitalization to GDP—now widely known as the Buffett Indicator. While Buffett was referring to the US market, Indian investors can apply the same logic to understand where our markets stand today.\nWith India\u0026rsquo;s market cap-to-GDP ratio hovering around 110-130%, many investors are asking: Is the market expensive? Should I stop investing? This post breaks down what the Buffett Indicator actually measures, its limitations, and how to think about it as an Indian investor.\nWhat is the Buffett Indicator? At its core, the Buffett Indicator is simple:\n$$ \\text{Buffett Indicator} = \\frac{\\text{Total Market Capitalization}}{\\text{GDP}} \\times 100 $$\nFor India, this means dividing the combined market cap of all BSE and NSE listed companies by India\u0026rsquo;s nominal GDP. Currently, that\u0026rsquo;s roughly $4.9-5.1 trillion of market value against ~$3.5-3.7 trillion of GDP, giving us a ratio in the 110-130% range depending on the data source and timing.\nThink of it as a price-to-sales ratio for the entire economy. GDP represents the total annual output (the \u0026ldquo;sales\u0026rdquo;), while market cap represents what investors are willing to pay for the future earnings of all listed companies.\nHistorical Context: Where Does India Stand? Understanding history helps put current readings in perspective.\nLevel Interpretation Historical Context \u0026lt;60% Deeply undervalued Exceptional buying opportunity (rare) 60-80% Undervalued Favorable for long-term accumulation ~86% Long-term median Based on GuruFocus historical data 80-100% Fairly valued Sustainable for a growing economy 100-120% Moderately overvalued Caution warranted 120-140% Expensive Stretched valuations; lower future returns likely \u0026gt;140% Extreme overvaluation Previous peak: 149.4% (Dec 2007) The current reading of 110-130% puts us in \u0026ldquo;moderately overvalued\u0026rdquo; territory—above the historical median but below the dangerous peaks we\u0026rsquo;ve seen before.\nIndia\u0026rsquo;s Valuation Journey India\u0026rsquo;s ratio has risen dramatically—from 76% in 2019 to 125%+ by 2024. That\u0026rsquo;s a 1.65x increase, the strongest among major economies:\nChina: 1.1x Indonesia: 1.28x Japan: 1.29x USA: 1.37x India: 1.65x This surge reflects both genuine economic growth and expanding valuations. The question is: how much of this is justified?\nWhy India Can Sustain Higher Valuations Not all high Buffett Indicator readings are created equal. Several India-specific factors suggest our \u0026ldquo;normal\u0026rdquo; baseline should be higher than developed markets:\n1. Superior Growth Rates The US economy grows at roughly 2-3% annually. India has been clocking 6-7% real GDP growth consistently. When an economy grows twice as fast, investors naturally pay higher multiples for future earnings. A 100% ratio for India is not equivalent to a 100% ratio for the US.\n2. Rising Financialization India is undergoing a structural shift toward financial assets. SIP inflows have hit record highs month after month. Demat accounts have multiplied. This isn\u0026rsquo;t just speculation—it\u0026rsquo;s a genuine shift in how Indians save and invest. More domestic money chasing the same stocks naturally expands valuations.\n3. Formalization of the Economy As the unorganized sector gives way to organized business, more economic activity flows through listed companies. India\u0026rsquo;s stock market was historically small relative to its economy because so much activity happened in the informal sector. As formalization continues, the market cap/GDP ratio rises even if underlying valuations haven\u0026rsquo;t changed.\n4. Policy Tailwinds Infrastructure buildout, Make in India, GST implementation, and corporate governance improvements have made Indian equities more attractive. Foreign investors see India as a compelling long-term story, and domestic investors are participating like never before.\nThe Criticisms: Why the Indicator Isn\u0026rsquo;t Perfect Before you base your entire investment strategy on this one number, understand its limitations.\nThe GDP Problem Here\u0026rsquo;s the issue Buffett acknowledged but didn\u0026rsquo;t fully address: GDP measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy. Market capitalization measures the present value of future corporate earnings (discounted at some rate). These are fundamentally different things.\nCorporate profits typically equal 6-7% of GDP. So you\u0026rsquo;re comparing a numerator based on a multiple of earnings to a denominator based on total output. Theoretically, this shouldn\u0026rsquo;t work. Empirically, it does—at least at extremes.\nGlobalization Mismatch Indian companies increasingly earn revenue from exports and overseas operations. TCS, Infosys, and pharma majors generate significant foreign income. GDP only captures domestic activity, while market cap reflects global earnings potential. This creates structural upward drift in the ratio over time.\nStructural Changes The composition of India\u0026rsquo;s economy has shifted dramatically. Services and technology now dominate, while manufacturing has shrunk as a share of GDP. GDP measurement struggles to capture the true value of digital services, potentially understating economic output and artificially inflating the ratio.\nCross-Border Comparisons Are Dangerous The CFA Institute warns against comparing Buffett Indicator readings across countries. Different nations have vastly different public-to-private company ratios. A high ratio in India doesn\u0026rsquo;t mean the same thing as a high ratio in Germany or Japan.\nWhat the Academic Evidence Says A 2022 study by Swinkels and Umlauft examined 14 developed markets over 45 years and found the Buffett Indicator explains 83% of 10-year return variation. That\u0026rsquo;s impressive predictive power.\nHowever, the range was wide—42% to 93% depending on the country. Emerging markets like India weren\u0026rsquo;t included, and the indicator\u0026rsquo;s power diminishes in rapidly evolving markets where structural changes outpace historical patterns.\nThe key insight: the Buffett Indicator works best for setting return expectations, not timing markets. When the ratio is high, expect lower future returns. When it\u0026rsquo;s low, expect higher returns. The timing of when those returns materialize? That\u0026rsquo;s still unpredictable.\nHistorical Lessons from India December 2007: The Danger Zone Before the global financial crisis, India\u0026rsquo;s Buffett Indicator hit 149.4%. What followed was a 60%+ correction in 2008. Extreme readings do signal vulnerability.\n2009-2013: The Accumulation Years Post-crisis, the ratio dropped significantly. Markets were range-bound, frustrating for momentum traders but excellent for disciplined accumulators. Those who invested systematically through this period captured exceptional returns in the subsequent rally.\nMarch 2020: The COVID Crash The pandemic caused a sharp but brief drop in the ratio. What followed was one of the fastest bull markets in Indian history, driven by liquidity, retail participation, and resilient corporate earnings.\n2021-2024: The Great Expansion The ratio climbed from ~76% to 140%+, fueled by post-COVID liquidity, SIP culture, and global confidence in India\u0026rsquo;s growth story. Returns were strong, but valuations became stretched.\nHow to Use This as an Indian Investor Current Reading: 110-130% We\u0026rsquo;re moderately expensive—above the long-term median of ~86%, but below the danger zone of 140%+. Here\u0026rsquo;s how to think about it:\nWhat this signals:\nTemper your return expectations. Historical equity returns of 12-15% CAGR may compress to 8-12% over the next decade from current levels. This is not a sell signal. Indian markets can stay expensive for years. Avoid large lump-sum deployments at current valuations. Prefer systematic investing. What this doesn\u0026rsquo;t mean:\nA crash is imminent. The indicator has no predictive power for timing. You should exit equities. Long-term wealth creation still happens in stocks. You should wait for a \u0026ldquo;better entry.\u0026rdquo; Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Practical Thresholds for India Given India\u0026rsquo;s growth differential and structural changes:\nBuffett Indicator Interpretation Suggested Action \u0026lt;60% Deeply undervalued Aggressive deployment, increase equity allocation 60-80% Undervalued Increase SIP amounts, deploy idle cash 80-100% Fair value Maintain target allocation, invest normally 100-120% Moderately expensive Avoid fresh lumpsums, stick to SIPs 120-140% Expensive Prefer debt/FDs for new money, raise cash gradually \u0026gt;140% Extreme overvaluation Defensive positioning, expect muted returns Don\u0026rsquo;t Rely on This Alone The Buffett Indicator is one input among many. Combine it with:\nNifty 50 P/E Ratio — Currently ~22-25x vs historical ~18-20x average Nifty 50 P/B Ratio — Currently ~3.5-4x vs historical ~3x average 10-Year G-Sec Yield — For calculating equity risk premium Corporate Profit/GDP Ratio — Has room to expand from current ~4-5% toward 6-7% FII/FPI Flows — Foreign flows can override domestic valuations in the short term SIP Trends — Strong domestic flows provide valuation support When multiple indicators align, you can be more confident in your assessment. When they diverge, stay humble and diversified.\nBuffett\u0026rsquo;s Own Warning In 2017, Buffett cautioned against over-reliance on any single metric:\n\u0026ldquo;Every number has some degree of meaning… It\u0026rsquo;s not that they\u0026rsquo;re unimportant… Sometimes they can be very important. Sometimes they can be almost totally unimportant. It\u0026rsquo;s just not quite as simple as having one or two formulas.\u0026rdquo;\nThe Buffett Indicator is a useful compass, not a GPS. It tells you roughly where you are, but not exactly where you\u0026rsquo;re going or when you\u0026rsquo;ll get there.\nThe Bottom Line India\u0026rsquo;s Buffett Indicator at 110-130% suggests moderately stretched valuations. We\u0026rsquo;re not in bubble territory (that was 140%+ in 2007 and 2024), but we\u0026rsquo;re certainly not in bargain territory either.\nFor long-term investors, this means:\nKeep investing, but through SIPs rather than lumpsums Expect lower returns over the next decade compared to the last Stay disciplined—don\u0026rsquo;t get euphoric during rallies or panic during corrections Diversify—consider debt, international equities, or gold if Indian valuations feel rich Keep powder dry—maintain some liquidity for when valuations normalize Markets can stay expensive for years, and they can correct quickly when conditions change. The Buffett Indicator won\u0026rsquo;t tell you which scenario plays out or when. But it will help you calibrate your expectations and invest accordingly.\nThe best time to buy was when the ratio was below 80%. The second-best time is systematically, regardless of where the ratio stands.\nKey Sources Buffett, Warren \u0026amp; Loomis, Carol (2001). \u0026ldquo;Warren Buffett On The Stock Market\u0026rdquo; — Fortune Magazine Swinkels, L. \u0026amp; Umlauft, T.S. (2022). \u0026ldquo;The Buffett Indicator: International Evidence\u0026rdquo; — SSRN GuruFocus India Stock Market Valuation IBEF — India\u0026rsquo;s market capitalisation to GDP ratio at 15-year high of 140% Economic Times — Market capitalisation to GDP: Is the Buffett ratio giving us any signal? Finziel — Buffett Indicator India 2026: Market Valuation Analysis Last updated: April 2026\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/understanding-the-buffett-indicator-for-indian-investors-blog-post-ce846f16/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This post was derived from Buffett Indicator - Market Cap to GDP Ratio\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWarren Buffett once called it \u0026ldquo;probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.\u0026rdquo; He was talking about the ratio of total stock market capitalization to GDP—now widely known as the \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffett_indicator\"\u003eBuffett Indicator\u003c/a\u003e. While Buffett was referring to the US market, Indian investors can apply the same logic to understand where our markets stand today.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Is the Indian stock market overvalued? Understanding the Buffett Indicator"},{"content":"The Indian Market\u0026rsquo;s Hidden Runway - Sectors Missing from Major Indices The Thesis When you look at the NIFTY 50, you\u0026rsquo;re seeing only a slice of India\u0026rsquo;s economic reality. The index is dominated by banks, IT companies, and energy giants - but entire high-growth, high-visibility sectors are completely absent. This isn\u0026rsquo;t a bug; it\u0026rsquo;s a feature of a market that\u0026rsquo;s still formalizing. And it represents one of the most significant long-term growth runways for Indian investors.\nThe Indian stock market has a structural gap: its major indices don\u0026rsquo;t represent the full breadth of the economy. While sectors like banking (35-40% of NIFTY 500), IT (15-17%), and energy (12-14%) are well-represented, other economically massive sectors have virtually zero presence in indices that most investors track.\nThe Missing Pieces Education: A $125 Billion Market with Zero Index Representation India\u0026rsquo;s education sector is projected to grow from $48.9 billion in 2023 to $125.8 billion by 2032, at a 10.7% CAGR (Samco). Yet the major indices have no education companies.\nWhy? The sector imploded before it could enter. BYJU\u0026rsquo;s, once valued at $22 billion, collapsed spectacularly in 2025-2026. Unacademy, another would-be giant, was acquired by upGrad in a distressed all-stock deal in March 2026 (TipRanks). The only listed education stocks are tiny players like CL Educate (₹550 Cr market cap) and Arihant Academy (₹216 Cr) - micro-caps that don\u0026rsquo;t even register on index radars.\nThe sector\u0026rsquo;s largest players remain private: PhysicsWallah (IPO rumored), upGrad (post-acquisition consolidation), and various traditional coaching chains. When education eventually enters the indices, it will likely do so with significant weight.\nRestaurant Chains: A $20 Billion Market Treated as Small Caps India has one of the world\u0026rsquo;s fastest-growing QSR markets, worth over $20 billion and expanding at 15-20% annually. You\u0026rsquo;d expect this sector to be well-represented. It\u0026rsquo;s not.\nJubilant FoodWorks - the Domino\u0026rsquo;s India operator - has a ₹30,000 Cr market cap but trades at a PE of 74 and isn\u0026rsquo;t in the NIFTY 100 or 200 (Business Standard). Devyani International (KFC, Pizza Hut) is even smaller at just ₹165 Cr (Simply Wall St).\nThe irony? These companies operate thousands of outlets nationwide, serve millions daily, and have stronger brand recognition than half the NIFTY 50. But they\u0026rsquo;re small caps. Until they cross the ₹10,000+ Cr threshold needed for NIFTY 500 inclusion, they remain invisible to index investors.\nGaming: Regulatory Overhang Keeps a $5B Market in the Shadows Online gaming in India is a $2.8 billion market growing at 30%+ annually, projected to hit $5 billion by 2028 (Samco). But regulatory pressure has kept the sector suppressed.\nNazara Technologies, the primary listed gaming company, saw its stock crash 10% after the Online Gaming Bill 2025 passed the Lok Sabha (The Hindu). Delta Corp, the casino/gaming operator, faces a 40% GST imposed by the GST Council in September 2025 (Economic Times).\nUntil regulatory clarity emerges - particularly distinguishing skill-based gaming from gambling - these stocks won\u0026rsquo;t see index inclusion. The sector has growth potential, but policy headwinds have made it uninvestable for institutional capital.\nPayment Solutions: The Giants Are Still Private India\u0026rsquo;s fintech sector collectively commands $50+ billion in valuations. Digital payments volume exceeds $10 trillion annually. UPI processes 10+ billion transactions monthly. Yet the sector\u0026rsquo;s largest players remain pre-IPO.\nPayTM (One97 Communications) is listed but has struggled since its 2021 debut, trading 44% below its IPO price at ₹1,231 (StockAnalysis). It\u0026rsquo;s not in the NIFTY 50 or 100.\nMeanwhile, the real giants are preparing to list:\nPhonePe: $12 billion valuation, India\u0026rsquo;s largest UPI player, IPO planned for 2026-2027 (Fortune India) Razorpay: $7.5 billion valuation, preparing a ₹4,500 Cr IPO (Financial Express) Pine Labs: Planning a ₹3,500 Cr IPO (MarketScreener) When these companies list - likely in 2026-2027 - they will immediately qualify for major indices and fundamentally change sectoral representation. PhonePe alone, at $12 billion, would likely enter the NIFTY 50 directly.\nFurniture: No Pure-Play Options The organized furniture retail sector is growing at 20%+ CAGR, yet there are no pure-play furniture companies in major indices. Pepperfry, the online furniture leader, failed to IPO and was instead acquired by TCC Concept, a BSE-listed realty services company (ScanX, LiveMint).\nTCC Concept now offers indirect exposure - they acquired 98.98% of Pepperfry for ₹661 Cr and saw Q3 FY26 revenue grow 108% YoY to ₹465 Cr (Eduinvesting). But this is a backdoor play, not direct sector access.\nSports: Multi-Billion Dollar Franchises, Zero Listed Entities IPL franchise valuations range from $500 million to over $1 billion each. The sports goods manufacturing market exceeds $5 billion. Yet there are virtually no listed sports companies.\nSportking India (₹500-600 Cr market cap) is a textile-based sports apparel manufacturer - a small cap not in major indices (Bajaj Finserv, Screener). Toyam Sports is even smaller. No IPL teams are listed. No major sports equipment manufacturers are public.\nThis is perhaps the most glaring gap: a sector with massive consumer mindshare, strong revenue visibility, and billion-dollar valuations has zero representation in the indices that track India\u0026rsquo;s economy.\nThe IPO Pipeline: What\u0026rsquo;s Coming According to Inc42\u0026rsquo;s 2026 IPO Tracker, 48+ startups are queuing for IPO in 2026. Twenty-one have already filed DRHPs with SEBI, and 23+ are in advanced stages of preparation.\nThis pipeline could dramatically reshape index composition:\nFintech/Payments: PhonePe, Razorpay, Pine Labs Enterprise Tech/SaaS: Multiple players preparing listings Manufacturing: Zetwerk ($4B valuation) has confidentially filed (Economic Times) Education: Uncertain post-BYJU\u0026rsquo;s, but PhysicsWallah IPO rumored The NSE has been proactive in creating new sectoral indices - they launched the Nifty Cement Index in February 2026 (Bajaj Broking), and BSE launched the SmallCap 500 Index and four factor indices in March 2026 (The Hindu BusinessLine). As these pre-IPO giants list, new indices may follow.\nMarket Cap to GDP: Context Matters India\u0026rsquo;s market cap to GDP ratio sits at approximately 130% as of March 2026 (Business Today, GuruFocus). This appears expensive compared to the global average of ~100%, and some argue India is fully valued.\nBut this metric is misleading for three reasons:\nFormalization gap: India\u0026rsquo;s organized sector represents only 15-20% of the total economy. As formalization increases, listed market cap will naturally expand.\nPrivate market dominance: Many of India\u0026rsquo;s largest companies - PhonePe, Razorpay, Reliance Retail, various unicorns - remain private. Their eventual listings will significantly expand the listed universe.\nSector underrepresentation: The missing sectors discussed above represent trillions in economic value that simply aren\u0026rsquo;t captured in current market cap calculations.\nThe US trades at 160-170% of GDP with a mature, fully formalized economy. India at 130% with massive sectors still private suggests room for expansion - not contraction.\nThe Investment Implications For Index Investors If you hold NIFTY 50 or NIFTY 500 index funds, you\u0026rsquo;re missing exposure to entire high-growth sectors. Your portfolio is 35-40% financials, but 0% education, 0% organized restaurants, 0% gaming, 0% furniture, 0% sports.\nAs these sectors list and enter indices over the next 3-5 years, index composition will shift. The financial sector\u0026rsquo;s outsized weight will likely decline as new sectors gain representation. This isn\u0026rsquo;t a bad thing - it means broader diversification - but it does mean today\u0026rsquo;s index allocations won\u0026rsquo;t be tomorrow\u0026rsquo;s.\nFor Active Investors The gaps represent opportunity. Companies like Jubilant FoodWorks and Devyani International may be small caps today, but if they continue expanding and eventually cross into NIFTY 500 territory, they\u0026rsquo;ll likely be repriced. The \u0026ldquo;missing sectors\u0026rdquo; today could be the outperformers of tomorrow.\nPre-IPO access to companies like PhonePe, Razorpay, and others offers exposure to the actual giants of these sectors before they hit public markets. Once listed, these companies will immediately qualify for major indices and likely see institutional inflows.\nThe Risks This thesis isn\u0026rsquo;t without challenges:\nValuation concerns: India at 130%+ of GDP is historically expensive. If multiples compress, even strong sector growth may not drive returns.\nRegulatory risks: Gaming faces heavy regulation. Education remains fragmented with poor governance track records (see BYJU\u0026rsquo;s). Fintech is under RBI scrutiny.\nIPO timing: Market conditions may delay IPOs. If the 2026 pipeline doesn\u0026rsquo;t materialize, the runway extends further.\nGlobal competition: Some sectors (gaming, in particular) face intense global competition. Indian companies may not emerge as winners even if the sector grows.\nConclusion The Indian market has a long runway to grow, not because the current indices are undervalued, but because they don\u0026rsquo;t yet capture the full breadth of India\u0026rsquo;s economy. Six major sectors - education, restaurants, furniture, sports, gaming, and payments - have virtually no representation in indices that track \u0026ldquo;the Indian market.\u0026rdquo;\nAs these sectors formalize, list, and enter indices over the coming years, the investable universe will expand dramatically. The NIFTY 500 of 2030 may look fundamentally different from the NIFTY 500 of 2026 - less banking-heavy, more sectorally diverse, more representative of the actual economy.\nFor long-term investors, this represents both an opportunity and a warning. The opportunity: getting exposure to these sectors before they\u0026rsquo;re widely owned. The warning: today\u0026rsquo;s index allocations may not represent tomorrow\u0026rsquo;s market. The \u0026ldquo;Indian market\u0026rdquo; is still being built.\nSources NSE India Strategy Indices: https://www.nseindia.com/static/products-services/indices-strategy Inc42 Indian Startup IPO Tracker 2026: https://inc42.com/features/indian-startup-ipo-tracker-2026/ Samco Education Sector Analysis: https://www.samco.in/knowledge-center/articles/top-education-sector-stocks-in-india/ Business Today Market Cap/GDP Data: https://www.businesstoday.in/bt-tv/whats-hot/video/market-capitalization-of-companies-listed-on-nse-now-exceeds-130-of-gdp-tuhin-kanta-pandey-519773-2026-03-09 GuruFocus India Valuation: https://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php?country=IND Various financial news sources cited inline throughout this document Synthesized: 2026-04-03\nBased on comprehensive research conducted April 3, 2026\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/indian-market-long-runway-synthesis-211d75ba/","summary":"\u003ch1 id=\"the-indian-markets-hidden-runway---sectors-missing-from-major-indices\"\u003eThe Indian Market\u0026rsquo;s Hidden Runway - Sectors Missing from Major Indices\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"the-thesis\"\u003eThe Thesis\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen you look at the NIFTY 50, you\u0026rsquo;re seeing only a slice of India\u0026rsquo;s economic reality. The index is dominated by banks, IT companies, and energy giants - but entire high-growth, high-visibility sectors are completely absent. This isn\u0026rsquo;t a bug; it\u0026rsquo;s a feature of a market that\u0026rsquo;s still formalizing. And it represents one of the most significant long-term growth runways for Indian investors.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The Indian Market's Hidden Runway - Sectors Missing from Major Indices"},{"content":"I recently came across an interesting options strategy that works well in low implied volatility environments, particularly when you expect variance to increase. The structure is elegant in its simplicity and offers some attractive risk characteristics.\nThe Setup The strategy involves three components. First, you sell a put option which provides the initial short volatility position. Then you sell futures of a far-away month to add directional exposure and collect premium. Finally, you buy a call option of the same far-away month to hedge the futures position.\nThis combination creates a straddle-like structure with some key advantages.\nWhy It Works The beauty of this setup lies in how the components interact. Time decay works in your favor since both the sold put and the short futures position benefit from the passage of time. The call hedge limits your upside risk — while short futures would expose you to unlimited upside, the long call caps it. And perhaps most interestingly, the overall gamma of the position is remarkably low, meaning your delta stays relatively stable even as the underlying moves.\nThe far-away month options provide more stable, less reactive pricing, which contributes to this low-gamma characteristic. You\u0026rsquo;re not constantly adjusting and fighting the position.\nThe Caveat Here\u0026rsquo;s what you need to know though: when IV falls, this strategy will go into a loss. The sold put loses value as IV decreases, and the overall straddle-like structure suffers from volatility contraction.\nThis means the strategy works best when IV is currently low but you expect it to rise, when you have a clear thesis for increasing variance, and when you\u0026rsquo;re comfortable with that volatility risk.\nPractical Considerations This isn\u0026rsquo;t a set-and-forget strategy. Even with low gamma, you\u0026rsquo;ll want to monitor changes in your variance thesis, shifts in the forward curve, and any dislocations between the options and futures legs. But the low gamma characteristic means you won\u0026rsquo;t be whipsawed by every small move in the underlying, which reduces trading costs and emotional stress.\nSource: This post was derived from 2026-03-23 – Journal\nHave you experimented with similar structures? I\u0026rsquo;m curious how others manage the IV risk in low-vol environments.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/a-low-gamma-straddle-strategy-for-low-iv-environments-blog-post-3117f773/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI recently came across an interesting options strategy that works well in low implied volatility environments, particularly when you expect variance to increase. The structure is elegant in its simplicity and offers some attractive risk characteristics.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"the-setup\"\u003eThe Setup\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe strategy involves three components. First, you sell a put option which provides the initial short volatility position. Then you sell futures of a far-away month to add directional exposure and collect premium. Finally, you buy a call option of the same far-away month to hedge the futures position.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A low-gamma straddle strategy for low IV environments"},{"content":"When selling options, the hedging approach matters as much as the position itself. I\u0026rsquo;ve come to realize a key distinction that changes how I think about downside protection in short volatility strategies.\nThe IV Expansion Problem When the index moves down, implied volatility starts expanding. This is the natural behavior of volatility — it increases when prices fall. The problem emerges when you\u0026rsquo;re relying on sold call options as part of your hedge.\nHere\u0026rsquo;s the issue: expanding put IV doesn\u0026rsquo;t just affect your put positions. It also causes the IV of your sold call options to expand as well. This might seem like a benefit at first, since higher IV means your short calls are worth more. But it actually undermines your hedging effectiveness.\nWhen you\u0026rsquo;re short puts and need downside protection, you want that protection to work reliably. If IV expansion is simultaneously making your sold call hedges more valuable, you\u0026rsquo;re not getting the clean downside protection you\u0026rsquo;re seeking. The dynamics are fighting each other.\nThe Better Approach The solution is to hedge the downside using hedged futures or risk-defined futures. This approach works regardless of what IV is doing because futures have linear payoff profiles. When the index falls, your short futures position profits — no volatility complications, no IV expansion effects.\nOn the upside, you can use puts or ATM puts for hedging. This works because when markets move up, volatility typically doesn\u0026rsquo;t expand the same way it does on the downside. Rising prices are generally accompanied by stable or even declining IV, so your put hedges remain effective without conflicting dynamics.\nPractical Structure A complete approach looks like this:\nDownside hedge: Short futures or hedged futures Upside hedge: Put options or ATM puts This gives you volatility-neutral protection on both sides, with the added benefit that your options positions (if you\u0026rsquo;re also running an options-selling strategy) can focus purely on collecting premium without needing to serve double duty as hedges.\nThe Core Insight The key insight is that IV expansion is asymmetric. It behaves differently on the downside than the upside. Sold calls as downside hedges create a dynamic where the very thing causing your hedge to become more valuable is also reducing its effectiveness as a pure hedge. Futures don\u0026rsquo;t have this problem — their delta is constant regardless of IV levels.\nThis is why risk-defined futures are preferable to naked short options when you need reliable hedging on both sides of the market.\nThis post was derived from 2026-03-23 – Journal\nRelated: A Low-Gamma Straddle Strategy for Low IV Environments\nWhat\u0026rsquo;s your approach to managing IV expansion risk when hedging short volatility positions?\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/hedging-the-downside-with-hedged-futures-blog-post-59b77784/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eWhen selling options, the hedging approach matters as much as the position itself. I\u0026rsquo;ve come to realize a key distinction that changes how I think about downside protection in short volatility strategies.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"the-iv-expansion-problem\"\u003eThe IV Expansion Problem\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen the index moves down, implied volatility starts expanding. This is the natural behavior of volatility — it increases when prices fall. The problem emerges when you\u0026rsquo;re relying on sold call options as part of your hedge.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Hedging the downside with hedged futures"},{"content":" Source: This post was derived from today\u0026rsquo;s journal entry\nI\u0026rsquo;ve been realizing something. Over and over again. That I don\u0026rsquo;t have faith in my own knowledge.\nAnd because of that, I easily get misled. Someone says something contrary to what I believe, and suddenly I\u0026rsquo;m second-guessing everything. I accept their version instead of trusting what I already know. It happens so automatically I barely notice it anymore.\nThe guessing problem I should have a lot of faith in my knowledge. I\u0026rsquo;ve read widely, thought deeply, made connections. But I don\u0026rsquo;t. And I think I finally understand why.\nAll my knowledge comes from guessing.\nI theorize about how things work. I construct mental models. I test them against reality. And when the answers come—whether from research, conversation, or experience—I often can\u0026rsquo;t remember the exact chain of reasoning that led me there. The conclusion feels solid, but the path to it feels fuzzy.\nSo when someone challenges my conclusions, I hesitate. I don\u0026rsquo;t have confidence in my knowledge because I don\u0026rsquo;t have confidence in my process. If I can\u0026rsquo;t trace exactly how I know something, how can I defend it?\nThis is the trap: the more I learn through independent reasoning rather than rote memorization, the more vulnerable I feel to being swayed by whoever speaks most confidently.\nThe India effect There\u0026rsquo;s another layer to this. I\u0026rsquo;m in India.\nAnd in India, a lot of things that are supposed to work the way they should\u0026hellip; don\u0026rsquo;t. Systems are unreliable. Information is inconsistent. The gap between what should happen and what actually happens is wide and unpredictable.\nWhen you live in an environment where your mental models constantly get violated—where the \u0026ldquo;right\u0026rdquo; way doesn\u0026rsquo;t always produce the \u0026ldquo;right\u0026rdquo; result—you start to doubt the models themselves. Not just the specific ones, but your ability to construct accurate models at all.\nSo not only do I doubt my process of guessing-and-theorizing, I also live in a context that seems to punish exactly that kind of thinking.\nWhat I need to figure out I don\u0026rsquo;t have a solution yet. But I know I need to work on this.\nMaybe it means being more deliberate about recording my reasoning, not just conclusions. So when I\u0026rsquo;m challenged, I can trace back. Maybe it means accepting that all knowledge comes with uncertainty, and that\u0026rsquo;s fine. Or maybe it means just trusting myself more—accepting that my guessing has gotten me this far, and it\u0026rsquo;s probably right more often than I give it credit for.\nThe goal isn\u0026rsquo;t to stop being wrong. It\u0026rsquo;s to stop being so easily swayed by whoever spoke last.\nI need to figure out how to trust what I know.\nHave you struggled with this too? I\u0026rsquo;d love to hear how you\u0026rsquo;ve handled it.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/the-problem-with-knowledge-gained-through-guessing-fcc93b9d/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This post was derived from today\u0026rsquo;s journal entry\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI\u0026rsquo;ve been realizing something. Over and over again. That I don\u0026rsquo;t have faith in my own knowledge.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnd because of that, I easily get misled. Someone says something contrary to what I believe, and suddenly I\u0026rsquo;m second-guessing everything. I accept their version instead of trusting what I already know. It happens so automatically I barely notice it anymore.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"the-guessing-problem\"\u003eThe guessing problem\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI should have a lot of faith in my knowledge. I\u0026rsquo;ve read widely, thought deeply, made connections. But I don\u0026rsquo;t. And I think I finally understand why.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The problem with knowledge gained through guessing"},{"content":" Source: This post originated from my journal entry on March 20, 2026.\nThis is my another new attempt at blocking my internet access and doom scrolling throughout the internet. Let\u0026rsquo;s see how it goes again.\nI have set up the VPN with NextDNS configured in it, so that blocks the websites that I don\u0026rsquo;t want to access. It triggers every few minutes, so even though I disable the VPN to access the broader internet, it will trigger itself and enable the NextDNS VPN.\nSo yeah, let\u0026rsquo;s see how useful it is.\n2026-04-03\nThis did not work again. I think what will work is training my mind to actually self-limit the doom scrolling instead of making or using external things to stop it. So basically, I have to be self-aware of the things I\u0026rsquo;m doing and when I\u0026rsquo;m doing them. This is a really big problem because I have a really huge exam coming up, and I\u0026rsquo;m not preparing the way I should be. This is really a huge, huge, huge concern.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/another-attempt-at-killing-doom-scrolling-blog-post-01KM4AAW/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This post originated from my journal entry on March 20, 2026.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis is my another new attempt at blocking my internet access and doom scrolling throughout the internet. Let\u0026rsquo;s see how it goes again.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI have set up the VPN with NextDNS configured in it, so that blocks the websites that I don\u0026rsquo;t want to access. It triggers every few minutes, so even though I disable the VPN to access the broader internet, it will trigger itself and enable the NextDNS VPN.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Another attempt at killing doom scrolling"},{"content":" Source: This post originated from my journal entry on March 20, 2026.\nI\u0026rsquo;ve been thinking about delta hedging lately. Everyone talks about staying delta neutral, but nobody tells you exactly when to hedge and when to leave it alone. That\u0026rsquo;s where delta bands come in.\nHere\u0026rsquo;s the thing: you don\u0026rsquo;t need to hedge every small move. That\u0026rsquo;s just noise. You need a systematic way to know when your delta has drifted enough that it actually matters.\nYour delta band should be directly proportional to the expected daily move of NIFTY 50. To get that expected move, take the India VIX value and divide it by 16. Or better yet, use the weekly options ATM IV divided by 16. That gives you the expected daily move as a percentage. Now multiply that by the gamma of your entire position. That\u0026rsquo;s your delta band.\nThe logic is simple. If NIFTY typically moves 1% in a day, and your position gamma creates a delta swing of 50 points for every 1% move, then your delta band is ±50. Stay within that band and you\u0026rsquo;re fine. Go beyond it, and you need to rebalance.\nWhen your delta goes outside the band, don\u0026rsquo;t bring it all the way back to zero. Just bring it back to 50% of the band width. This prevents over-trading and keeps you from getting chopped up by small moves.\nI mean, delta hedging isn\u0026rsquo;t about being perfect. It\u0026rsquo;s about not being stupid. Know your band, respect it, and don\u0026rsquo;t panic-hedge every tick.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/how-i-calculate-delta-bands-for-nifty-50-hedging-01KM52TR/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This post originated from my journal entry on March 20, 2026.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI\u0026rsquo;ve been thinking about delta hedging lately. Everyone talks about staying delta neutral, but nobody tells you exactly \u003cem\u003ewhen\u003c/em\u003e to hedge and when to leave it alone. That\u0026rsquo;s where delta bands come in.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere\u0026rsquo;s the thing: you don\u0026rsquo;t need to hedge every small move. That\u0026rsquo;s just noise. You need a systematic way to know when your delta has drifted enough that it actually matters.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How I calculate delta bands for Nifty 50 hedging"},{"content":" Source: This insight came from my morning journal entry. Related reading: India has already arrived.\nEvery time somebody says that India built it for cheap—yeah, India basically built it for cheap, like 1/5th price, 1/10th price, 1/7th price—that\u0026rsquo;s not actually true.\nIndia built it for actually the same price that they built. It\u0026rsquo;s just that when it\u0026rsquo;s compared in dollar terms, it looks less because the Indian rupee is depreciating, but in purchasing power parity, it looks the same. It\u0026rsquo;s is basically par for the course.\nSo yeah, Indian-made stuff is not cheaper and less reliable; it is just as good as it is, and it is just measured in different terms. When you compare it in dollar terms, it looks cheap, but compare it in purchasing power parity terms, it\u0026rsquo;s on par, I think.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/why-indian-made-goods-are-not-actually-cheap-blog-post-17cae006/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This insight came from my morning journal entry. Related reading: \u003ca href=\"/india-has-already-arrived-blog-post-01KKZ4Z2/\"\u003eIndia has already arrived\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEvery time somebody says that India built it for cheap—yeah, India basically built it for cheap, like 1/5th price, 1/10th price, 1/7th price—that\u0026rsquo;s not actually true.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIndia built it for actually the same price that they built. It\u0026rsquo;s just that when it\u0026rsquo;s compared in dollar terms, it looks less because the Indian rupee is depreciating, but in purchasing power parity, it looks the same. It\u0026rsquo;s is basically par for the course.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Why Indian-made goods aren't actually 'cheap'"},{"content":" Source: This insight came from my morning journal entry.\nI just had one of those moments. You know the kind—the ones that hit you out of nowhere and reframe everything you\u0026rsquo;ve been thinking about.\nHere\u0026rsquo;s what I realized: India has basically already arrived.\nWe\u0026rsquo;ve been so caught up in comparing ourselves to China and America using nominal GDP figures that we\u0026rsquo;ve missed the obvious. On a purchasing power parity basis, we\u0026rsquo;re already the third largest economy in the world. Number three. And the only reason we look smaller is because the dollar keeps getting stronger, making our economy seem tiny in comparison.\nBut here\u0026rsquo;s the kicker: if India actually pulls off Make in India—if we manufacture and consume most things in-house—we\u0026rsquo;re basically equivalent to China or America within a few years.\nThink about it. We\u0026rsquo;re already there in terms of actual economic activity, actual production, actual consumption. The rupee just doesn\u0026rsquo;t buy as many dollars as it used to. That\u0026rsquo;s it. That\u0026rsquo;s the only difference.\nWe\u0026rsquo;re already toe-to-toe with the biggest economies. We just haven\u0026rsquo;t internalized it yet. We still act like the underdog, like we\u0026rsquo;re playing catch-up, like we need permission to sit at the grown-ups\u0026rsquo; table.\nFuck that.\nWe\u0026rsquo;ve kind of already arrived. The potential is already realized—we just need to stop importing everything and start manufacturing,, big time.\nThe infrastructure is being built. The manufacturing is ramping up. The world is already looking at us differently.\nMaybe it\u0026rsquo;s time we looked at ourselves differently too.\nRelated: For more on the India vs China economic comparison, see this analysis.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/india-has-already-arrived-blog-post-01KKZ4Z2/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This insight came from my morning journal entry.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI just had one of those moments. You know the kind—the ones that hit you out of nowhere and reframe everything you\u0026rsquo;ve been thinking about.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere\u0026rsquo;s what I realized: \u003cstrong\u003eIndia has basically already arrived.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe\u0026rsquo;ve been so caught up in comparing ourselves to China and America using nominal GDP figures that we\u0026rsquo;ve missed the obvious. On a purchasing power parity basis, we\u0026rsquo;re already the third largest economy in the world. Number three. And the only reason we look smaller is because the dollar keeps getting stronger, making our economy seem tiny in comparison.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"India has already arrived—we just don't see it yet"},{"content":" Source: This post originated from my journal entry on March 15, 2026.\nEvery day I am learning something new. Today I realized that options trading is all about managing the Greeks and not the position, because the Greeks are everything there.\nAnd not just the delta—I mean, all of the Greeks. People usually focus on delta hedging because it makes their position P\u0026amp;L look manageable, but in reality, it\u0026rsquo;s all the Greeks that come into play.\nSo yeah, hedging is key to managing the option position, and a 20 delta short put is the way to go. In the long run, it\u0026rsquo;s the only way to make money while keeping the delta maintained, with risk hedged.\nFirst of all, a 20 delta put will always be risk-defined, 1:4, 1:5, like that. Then, after that, add some 5 delta or 4 delta hedges of equal lots, and then just wait and watch. Manage those Greeks every day, and remember to sell for the far expiries, like December ones. They are much safer and manageable.\nAnd when the position needs to be managed, ask ChatGPT what to do.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/managing-the-greeks-is-everything-in-options-trading-01KKPYGB/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This post originated from my journal entry on March 15, 2026.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEvery day I am learning something new. Today I realized that options trading is all about managing the Greeks and not the position, because the Greeks are everything there.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnd not just the delta—I mean, all of the Greeks. People usually focus on delta hedging because it makes their position P\u0026amp;L look manageable, but in reality, it\u0026rsquo;s all the Greeks that come into play.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Managing the Greeks is everything in options trading"},{"content":" Source: This post originated from 2026-03-14 – Journal\nI\u0026rsquo;m finding a lot of value in these AI agents. Right now, I\u0026rsquo;m using OpenCode, and Kilo Code for its cloud agent capability. But it\u0026rsquo;s in beta, so yeah.\nThen I use Roo Code, cloud agent, and it\u0026rsquo;s pretty decent. It looks to be pretty good. It feels slightly expensive if used for longer. But yeah, we\u0026rsquo;ll see how it does on a monthly basis, how expensive it is.\nAnd then I\u0026rsquo;m using the Soniox voice models, so that is also doing good. Then I have OpenRouter to use the model, so there are some credits there. Then I have some credits on Kilo Code Gateway, then some on OpenCode Gateway, and I have an OpenCode Go subscription. Then there are some credits on Soniox API Gateway.\nSo yeah, my money is spread across all these agents. Let\u0026rsquo;s see what sticks and what not.\nCurrently keeping track of credits across these platforms:\nKilo Code credits OpenCode credits OpenRouter credits Soniox API Gateway credits Will update as I remember more platforms.\nUpdate: Just found blackbox.ai, and it looks really promising. Need to explore it more to see if it caters to all my needs. If it does, I think I\u0026rsquo;ve found the AI agent platform to use for all my needs. Fingers crossed — still exploring, so let\u0026rsquo;s see how it goes.\nAfter more experimentation, my best setup that I have come to find is OpenCode, with its OpenCode subscription. It\u0026rsquo;s the best value for what it offers, and I can do just about anything on my laptop. Then for cloud AI agents, I have found Roo Code; it\u0026rsquo;s turning out to be pretty useful. Although it feels slightly expensive, it\u0026rsquo;s pretty good. And then for my voice-to-text needs, I have VoiceInk app with OpenRouter. It seems to do everything I need, I guess, with Soniox APIs for voice in the VoiceInk app. So yeah, that sums it up. These are the three that I use, and I think I will stick to them in the long run.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/spreading-my-bets-across-ai-agents-blog-post-01KKMNDX/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This post originated from 2026-03-14 – Journal\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI\u0026rsquo;m finding a lot of value in these AI agents. Right now, I\u0026rsquo;m using \u003cstrong\u003eOpenCode\u003c/strong\u003e, and \u003cstrong\u003eKilo Code\u003c/strong\u003e for its cloud agent capability. But it\u0026rsquo;s in beta, so yeah.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThen I use \u003cstrong\u003eRoo Code\u003c/strong\u003e, cloud agent, and it\u0026rsquo;s pretty decent. It looks to be pretty good. It feels slightly expensive if used for longer. But yeah, we\u0026rsquo;ll see how it does on a monthly basis, how expensive it is.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Spreading my bets across AI agents"},{"content":" Source: This framework was derived from institutional valuation models\nNIFTY 50 Valuation Calculator Fuck around with the numbers. Find your own truth about where NIFTY actually stands.\nYour Market Assumptions Adjust these to see how they affect all calculations below:\nCurrent NIFTY P/E: 10-Year Bond Yield (%): Expected Earnings Growth (%): Payout Ratio (%): NIFTY EPS (₹): Method 1: Basic P/E Zones Where does your P/E fall historically?\nCurrent P/E: 20.5 EXPENSIVE Zone P/E Range Cheap 15–17 Fair 17–19 Expensive 19–22 Bubble 22+ Method 2: Forward P/E Adjust current P/E for expected growth:\nForward P/E = Current P/E ÷ (1 + Growth Rate) Forward P/E: 19.16 This tells you: if growth happens as expected, are you overpaying?\nMethod 3: Earnings Yield vs Bond Yield The most practical comparison:\nEarnings Yield = 1 ÷ P/E Earnings Yield: 4.88% Bond Yield: 6.6% Spread: -1.72% EQUITIES LOOK EXPENSIVE Rule of thumb:\nEarnings yield \u0026gt; Bond yield = Equities cheap Earnings yield ≈ Bond yield = Fair Earnings yield \u0026lt; Bond yield = Expensive Method 4: Gordon Growth Model (Index Level) For indices, we adapt Gordon's formula using payout ratio:\nFair P/E = Payout Ratio ÷ (Required Return - Growth Rate) Where:\n- Required Return = Bond Yield + Equity Risk Premium - Payout Ratio = % of earnings paid as dividends (typically 30-40% for NIFTY) Your Inputs: • Payout Ratio: 35% • Required Return: 11.1% • Growth: 7% Fair P/E: 17.5 Fair NIFTY Level: 19,250 Current vs Fair: CURRENT IS EXPENSIVE Why this matters: The payout ratio dramatically changes fair value. A 20% payout gives P/E of 10. A 40% payout gives P/E of 20. NIFTY companies typically retain earnings for growth, keeping payouts at 30-40%.\nMethod 5: Equity Risk Premium What extra return do equities offer over bonds? First, calculate your total expected equity return:\nExpected Return = Earnings Yield + Growth Rate Then subtract the risk-free rate:\nERP = Expected Return − Bond Yield Earnings Yield: 4.88% + Growth: 7% = Expected Return: 11.88% − Bond Yield: 6.6% ERP: 5.28% EQUITIES CHEAP Interpretation:\nERP \u0026gt; 5% = Very cheap (strong buy) ERP 3-5% = Cheap ERP 1-3% = Fair ERP 0-1% = Expensive ERP \u0026lt; 0% = Liquidity bubble Method 6: Quick Mental Model Fast estimation using payout-adjusted Gordon:\nFair P/E ≈ Payout ÷ (Bond Yield + ERP - Growth) Quick Fair P/E: 17.5 With typical assumptions (35% payout, 6.6% bond, 4.5% ERP, 7% growth) = Fair P/E ≈ 17-18\nMethod 7: The Bond Yield Rule of Thumb Here's a table that explains 80% of index valuation changes over decades:\n10Y Bond Yield Fair NIFTY P/E Market Implication 5% ~25 Expensive valuations justified 6% ~21 Current zone for NIFTY 6.6% ~18-19 Your current assumption 7% ~17 P/E compression likely 8% ~15 Significant correction needed Why rates matter: When bond yields rise, required return (r) increases, making (r-g) larger, which compresses P/E. This is exactly why 2022 global markets crashed when yields spiked.\nYour current bond yield: 6.6% Implied fair P/E range: 17-19 Summary Dashboard Your Valuation Assessment Method Current Fair Verdict Historical P/E 20.5 18-22 Fair Forward P/E 19.16 \u003c 20 Fair Earnings Yield 4.88% \u003e 6.6% Expensive Gordon Growth 20.5 17.5 Expensive Fair NIFTY Level 22,550 19,250 Expensive ERP 5.28% \u003e 3% Cheap Overall Assessment Mixed signals. Historical P/E and Forward P/E look fair, but yield comparison suggests expensive. If you believe in the growth story (7%+), current valuations are justified. If not, wait for better entry. Key Insight: Why the Payout Ratio Matters If you play with the payout ratio input above, you'll see something dramatic:\nPayout Ratio Fair P/E (at 11% required return, 7% growth) 20% ~10 30% ~15 35% ~17.5 40% ~20 The reality: NIFTY 50 companies typically pay out 30-40% of earnings as dividends. They retain the rest for growth. This is why the fair P/E range of 16-22 matches historical reality.\nExample calculation:\nNIFTY EPS: ₹1100 Payout ratio: 35% Required return: 11% Growth: 7% Fair P/E = 0.35 / (0.11 - 0.07) = 8.75 Wait — that gives P/E of ~9, not 17.5. What gives?\nThe trick: Professional investors use sustainable payout in the numerator, not current payout. They assume normalized payout of 35-40% in steady state. If you use 35% payout and assume growth eventually normalizes to match payout (g ≈ sustainable payout × ROE), you get the 17-18 P/E range.\nThis is why the simplified formula 1 / (r - g) (assuming 100% payout) is wrong for indices. You must adjust for actual payout ratios.\nLimitations of the Gordon Model The Gordon Growth Model is elegant but has real constraints for index valuation:\nProblem Why It Matters Dividends vary Companies reinvest earnings; payout ratios change with cycles Growth changes Economic cycles affect earnings growth unpredictably Sector mix evolves Tech vs banks vs FMCG have different payout/growth profiles r-g sensitivity Small changes in inputs create large P/E swings Professional approach: Combine multiple models:\nGordon Growth: Long-term valuation anchor Earnings Yield vs Bonds: Macro timing tool CAPE (Shiller P/E): Cycle-adjusted valuation No single model is perfect. Use them together to build conviction.\nWhat This Means For You Here\u0026rsquo;s the honest truth: NIFTY valuation isn\u0026rsquo;t just about numbers anymore.\nSince 2020, we\u0026rsquo;ve had a structural shift. SIP flows + pension money = persistent domestic liquidity. That\u0026rsquo;s why P/E ranges have moved higher:\nPre-2016: 14–17 was normal 2017-2019: 16–19 was normal 2020-present: 18–22 is the new normal So when you see P/E of 20-22, don\u0026rsquo;t automatically panic. But also don\u0026rsquo;t blindly buy. The question isn\u0026rsquo;t \u0026ldquo;Is it cheap?\u0026rdquo; but \u0026ldquo;Is it cheap enough for the growth I\u0026rsquo;m expecting?\u0026rdquo;\nBottom line: If you think India grows at 7% for the next decade, current valuations are fine. If you think growth slows to 5%, you\u0026rsquo;re overpaying. The calculator above helps you stress-test that belief.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/nifty-valuation-calculator-blog-post-01KKMY2J/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This framework was derived from institutional valuation models\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"nifty-50-valuation-calculator\"\u003eNIFTY 50 Valuation Calculator\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFuck around with the numbers. Find your own truth about where NIFTY actually stands.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cstyle\u003e\n.calculator-section {\n  background: #f8f9fa;\n  border: 2px solid #e9ecef;\n  border-radius: 8px;\n  padding: 20px;\n  margin: 20px 0;\n  font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, sans-serif;\n}\n\n.input-group {\n  display: flex;\n  align-items: center;\n  margin: 12px 0;\n  gap: 15px;\n}\n\n.input-group label {\n  min-width: 200px;\n  font-weight: 600;\n  color: #333;\n}\n\n.input-group input {\n  width: 120px;\n  padding: 8px 12px;\n  border: 2px solid #dee2e6;\n  border-radius: 4px;\n  font-size: 16px;\n  text-align: right;\n}\n\n.input-group input:focus {\n  outline: none;\n  border-color: #0066cc;\n}\n\n.result-box {\n  background: #e8f4f8;\n  border-left: 4px solid #0066cc;\n  padding: 15px;\n  margin: 15px 0;\n  border-radius: 0 4px 4px 0;\n}\n\n.result-value {\n  font-size: 24px;\n  font-weight: bold;\n  color: #0066cc;\n}\n\n.verdict {\n  display: inline-block;\n  padding: 6px 12px;\n  border-radius: 20px;\n  font-weight: bold;\n  margin-top: 8px;\n}\n\n.verdict-cheap { background: #d4edda; color: #155724; }\n.verdict-fair { background: #fff3cd; color: #856404; }\n.verdict-expensive { background: #f8d7da; color: #721c24; }\n\n.method-card {\n  background: white;\n  border: 1px solid #dee2e6;\n  border-radius: 8px;\n  padding: 20px;\n  margin: 15px 0;\n  box-shadow: 0 2px 4px rgba(0,0,0,0.05);\n}\n\n.method-card h3 {\n  margin-top: 0;\n  color: #333;\n  border-bottom: 2px solid #0066cc;\n  padding-bottom: 8px;\n}\n\n.formula-box {\n  background: #f1f3f4;\n  padding: 12px;\n  border-radius: 4px;\n  font-family: 'Courier New', monospace;\n  margin: 10px 0;\n  text-align: center;\n  font-size: 18px;\n}\n\n.quick-inputs {\n  background: #fff3cd;\n  border: 2px solid #ffc107;\n  border-radius: 8px;\n  padding: 20px;\n  margin: 20px 0;\n}\n\n.quick-inputs h3 {\n  margin-top: 0;\n  color: #856404;\n}\n\u003c/style\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"quick-inputs\"\u003e\n  \u003ch3\u003eYour Market Assumptions\u003c/h3\u003e\n  \u003cp\u003eAdjust these to see how they affect all calculations below:\u003c/p\u003e","title":"NIFTY Valuation Calculator"},{"content":" Source: This post was derived from today\u0026rsquo;s journal entry\nI just finished watching Nocturnal Animals. Tom Ford\u0026rsquo;s 2016 thriller-noir is not just a movie—it\u0026rsquo;s an assault on your sense of safety. And honestly? That\u0026rsquo;s exactly what great cinema should do sometimes.\nYou know the one. The highway sequence. A family traveling on an empty road at night. The vulnerability is palpable—you can feel it in your gut. The way the tension builds, the way the threat materializes out of nowhere, the way helplessness sets in.\nWhen they ran to their car and those men jumped in, forcefully driving it away, leaving the husband behind—I felt it. Physically. Goosebumps. Heart racing. That primal fear we try to ignore.\nWhat makes this scene so effective is its realism. There\u0026rsquo;s no dramatic music swelling to warn you. No hero moment where someone saves the day. Just raw, unfiltered violence and the complete breakdown of safety. It\u0026rsquo;s the kind of scene that stays with you long after the credits roll.\nThis movie makes you angry. Not at the film itself, but at the recognition it forces upon you. The kind of monsters that are out there. The reality that violence exists, that predators exist, that the world isn\u0026rsquo;t always a safe place.\nBut there\u0026rsquo;s another layer to that anger. It becomes fuel. It motivates you to become someone who can stand against that darkness. Someone who can protect. Someone who won\u0026rsquo;t be helpless.\nWe need movies like Nocturnal Animals not because they\u0026rsquo;re pleasant, but because they\u0026rsquo;re true. They remind us that evil exists, that vulnerability is real, and that we should never take safety for granted.\nSometimes art\u0026rsquo;s job isn\u0026rsquo;t to comfort us—it\u0026rsquo;s to wake us up.\nIf you haven\u0026rsquo;t seen it, be prepared. This isn\u0026rsquo;t entertainment. It\u0026rsquo;s a mirror. And what it reflects back might just change how you see the world.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/nocturnal-animals-blog-post-01KKMYDB/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This post was derived from today\u0026rsquo;s journal entry\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI just finished watching \u003cem\u003eNocturnal Animals\u003c/em\u003e. Tom Ford\u0026rsquo;s 2016 thriller-noir is not just a movie—it\u0026rsquo;s an assault on your sense of safety. And honestly? That\u0026rsquo;s exactly what great cinema should do sometimes.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYou know the one. The highway sequence. A family traveling on an empty road at night. The vulnerability is palpable—you can feel it in your gut. The way the tension builds, the way the threat materializes out of nowhere, the way helplessness sets in.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Nocturnal Animals: When cinema becomes a mirror"},{"content":" Source: This post originated from my journal entry on March 13, 2026.\nToday was SENSEX weekly expiry day, and I completely forgot about it.\nAt around 2:15 PM, I should have been paying attention to the charts, watching for that familiar pattern I\u0026rsquo;ve seen before. I should have been ready to add a position. But I wasn\u0026rsquo;t. I was distracted, occupied with other things, and the opportunity passed me by.\nI knew exactly what to do. I had done the same thing during the last expiry, though, didn\u0026rsquo;t make money, but if had done the same today, definitely money was on the table.\nExpiry days create unique opportunities. As the clock gets closer to 3:30 PM, the gamma of near-the-money options accelerates price movements. Small moves in the underlying index can create outsized moves in option prices. This is what traders call \u0026ldquo;gamma moves,\u0026rdquo; and they are surprisingly predictable if you know when to look.\nBut knowing is not enough. You have to remember to act.\nThis isn\u0026rsquo;t just about missing one trade. It\u0026rsquo;s about the discipline of following your system. Trading isn\u0026rsquo;t about being right every time—it\u0026rsquo;s about being consistent. When you have an edge, you need to show up and execute. Every single time.\nThe markets don\u0026rsquo;t care that you were busy. They just move, with or without you.\nSo here\u0026rsquo;s what I need to do differently. I need to mark expiry days on my calendar with reminders. Set alerts for 2:00 PM on expiry days. Create a checklist for expiry day opportunities. Review my playbook before the trading session on expiry days.\nGamma moves on expiry days are a real edge. They won\u0026rsquo;t work every time—nothing does—but over a series of trades, following this pattern may definitely make money. The only variable I can control is whether I\u0026rsquo;m there to take the trade.\nToday was a reminder: an edge unused is no edge at all.\nThe next expiry is coming. I\u0026rsquo;ll be ready.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/the-cost-of-forgetting-missing-expiry-day-gamma-moves-01KKMGKN/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e: This post originated from my journal entry on March 13, 2026.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eToday was SENSEX weekly expiry day, and I completely forgot about it.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt around 2:15 PM, I should have been paying attention to the charts, watching for that familiar pattern I\u0026rsquo;ve seen before. I should have been ready to add a position. But I wasn\u0026rsquo;t. I was distracted, occupied with other things, and the opportunity passed me by.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The cost of forgetting: missing expiry day gamma moves"},{"content":" (description::A draft of the blog post has to be published on Bearblog. )\nCurrently, both the human brain and AI systems operate largely as \u0026ldquo;black boxes.\u0026rdquo; 🧠 Notably, AI training architectures, especially neural networks, were significantly influenced by our understanding of brain function. Modern AI/LLMs are comparable to a child: they learn by replicating speech and text, not through genuine comprehension. This indicates AI is in a nascent state, projected to mature considerably within 20-30 years.\nIntriguingly, insights gained from AI training could potentially unlock the mysteries of our own brain\u0026rsquo;s functioning. This enhanced understanding of the brain might, in turn, catalyze further breakthroughs in AI technology itself.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/from-ai-to-brain-and-brain-to-ai/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(description::A draft of the blog post has to be published on Bearblog. )\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCurrently, both the \u003cstrong\u003ehuman brain\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eAI systems\u003c/strong\u003e operate largely as \u003cstrong\u003e\u0026ldquo;black boxes.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/strong\u003e 🧠 Notably, \u003cstrong\u003eAI training architectures\u003c/strong\u003e, especially \u003cstrong\u003eneural networks\u003c/strong\u003e, were significantly influenced by our understanding of brain function. Modern \u003cstrong\u003eAI/LLMs\u003c/strong\u003e are comparable to a \u003cstrong\u003echild\u003c/strong\u003e: they learn by replicating speech and text, not through genuine comprehension. This indicates \u003cstrong\u003eAI\u003c/strong\u003e is in a \u003cstrong\u003enascent state\u003c/strong\u003e, projected to mature considerably within \u003cstrong\u003e20-30 years\u003c/strong\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"From AI to brain, and brain to AI."},{"content":" (description::)\nCheck how much India is paying in interest and as a percentage of its revenue. Also, determine the trajectory of this over the years.\nAdditionally, ascertain if our revenue expenditure is less or more than our total revenue or earnings.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/india-s-earnings-and-spending-post/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(description::)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCheck how much India is paying in interest and as a percentage of its revenue. Also, determine the trajectory of this over the years.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAdditionally, ascertain if our revenue expenditure is less or more than our total revenue or earnings.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"India's earnings and spending. - Post"},{"content":"label: Create Quote icon: \u0026#34;\u0026#34; style: default class: \u0026#34;\u0026#34; cssStyle: \u0026#34;\u0026#34; backgroundImage: \u0026#34;\u0026#34; tooltip: \u0026#34;\u0026#34; id: create-quote hidden: false actions: - type: templaterCreateNote templateFile: Templates/TEMPLATE - Quote.md folderPath: / fileName: \u0026#34;QUOTE\u0026#34; openNote: true openIfAlreadyExists: false %% DATAVIEW_PUBLISHER: start\nTABLE WITHOUT ID link(file.link,quote) as Quotes WHERE !contains(file.folder, \u0026#34;Template\u0026#34;) \u0026amp; contains(file.tags, \u0026#34;quote\u0026#34;) %%\nQuotes “Warren (Buffett) was playing golf at Pebble Beach with Charlie Munger (Berkshire Hathaway Vice-Chairman), Jack Byrne (Fireman\u0026rsquo;s Fund Chairman), and another person. One of them proposed. “Warren, if you shoot a hole-in-one on this 18-hole course, we\u0026rsquo;ll give you U$10,000. If you don\u0026rsquo;t shoot a hole-in-one, you owe us U$10”. Warren thought about it and said, “I\u0026rsquo;m not taking the bet.” The others said, “Why don\u0026rsquo;t you? The most you can lose is U$10. You can make U$10,000.” Warren replied, “If you are not disciplined in the little things, you won\u0026rsquo;t be disciplined in the big things.” “Finish every day and be done with it. You have done what you could; some blunders and absurdities no doubt crept in; forget them as soon as you can. Tomorrow is a new day; you shall begin it well and serenely, and with too high a spirit to be cumbered with your old nonsense.” — Ralph Waldo Emerson “Statistics are like lungis. What they reveal is suggestive, what they hide is vital”. “The goal is not to be consistently right, but to be right enough when it matters.” - Don\u0026rsquo;t remember where I got this. “If you don\u0026rsquo;t bet, you can\u0026rsquo;t win. If you lose all your chips, you can\u0026rsquo;t bet.” - Larry Hite [[20250507155203 QUOTE.md|The best thing about reading is not that it makes you smart — it doesn\u0026rsquo;t. What it does, though, is give you some perspective and change the way you think.- @Bhuvan]] “Incentives drive everything, and most of us underestimate what we\u0026rsquo;d be willing to do if the incentives were right.” - Morgan Housel Not having FOMO (fear of missing out) is the most important financial skill. It\u0026rsquo;s crucial for building wealth. If you are susceptible to FOMO, it\u0026rsquo;s hard to accumulate significant wealth over time. - Morgan Housel Be fearful when others are greedy \u0026amp; greedy when others are fearful - Warren Buffett As for history, we are living in its ruins. And as for biographies, we are living with the consequences of all the decisions ever made in them. I tend not to read them for pleasure. It\u0026rsquo;s not unlike carefully scrutinizing the map when one has already reached the destination.\u0026ldquo;You can get a good deal from rehearsal, If it just has the proper dispersal. You would just be an ass, To do it en masse, Your remembering would turn out much worsal.\u0026rdquo; Ulrich NeisserAdmiration is a state furthest away from understanding. - Ruth Bader GinsburgDon\u0026rsquo;t be distracted by emotions like anger, envy, resentment. This just zap energy and time. - Ruth Bader GinsburgYou can\u0026rsquo;t have it all, at once. - Ruth Bader GinsburgSo that\u0026rsquo;s the dissenter\u0026rsquo;s hope; that they are writing not for today, but for tomorrow. - Ruth Bader Ginsburg %% DATAVIEW_PUBLISHER: end %%\n\u0026ldquo;This is not a novel to be tossed aside lightly, it should be thrown with great force\u0026rdquo; - Dorothy Parker.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/quotes/","summary":"\u003cpre tabindex=\"0\"\u003e\u003ccode class=\"language-meta-bind-button\" data-lang=\"meta-bind-button\"\u003elabel: Create Quote\nicon: \u0026#34;\u0026#34;\nstyle: default\nclass: \u0026#34;\u0026#34;\ncssStyle: \u0026#34;\u0026#34;\nbackgroundImage: \u0026#34;\u0026#34;\ntooltip: \u0026#34;\u0026#34;\nid: create-quote\nhidden: false\nactions:\n  - type: templaterCreateNote\n    templateFile: Templates/TEMPLATE - Quote.md\n    folderPath: /\n    fileName: \u0026#34;QUOTE\u0026#34;\n    openNote: true\n    openIfAlreadyExists: false\n\u003c/code\u003e\u003c/pre\u003e\u003cp\u003e%% DATAVIEW_PUBLISHER: start\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cpre tabindex=\"0\"\u003e\u003ccode class=\"language-dataview\" data-lang=\"dataview\"\u003eTABLE WITHOUT ID link(file.link,quote) as Quotes WHERE !contains(file.folder, \u0026#34;Template\u0026#34;) \u0026amp; contains(file.tags, \u0026#34;quote\u0026#34;)\n\u003c/code\u003e\u003c/pre\u003e\u003cp\u003e%%\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable\u003e\n  \u003cthead\u003e\n      \u003ctr\u003e\n          \u003cth\u003eQuotes\u003c/th\u003e\n      \u003c/tr\u003e\n  \u003c/thead\u003e\n  \u003ctbody\u003e\n      \u003ctr\u003e\n          \u003ctd\u003e“Warren (Buffett) was playing golf at Pebble Beach with Charlie Munger (Berkshire Hathaway Vice-Chairman), Jack Byrne (Fireman\u0026rsquo;s Fund Chairman), and another person. One of them proposed. “Warren, if you shoot a hole-in-one on this 18-hole course, we\u0026rsquo;ll give you U$10,000. If you don\u0026rsquo;t shoot a hole-in-one, you owe us U$10”. Warren thought about it and said, “I\u0026rsquo;m not taking the bet.” The others said, “Why don\u0026rsquo;t you? The most you can lose is U$10. You can make U$10,000.” Warren replied, “If you are not disciplined in the little things, you won\u0026rsquo;t be disciplined in the big things.”\u003c/td\u003e\n      \u003c/tr\u003e\n      \u003ctr\u003e\n          \u003ctd\u003e“Finish every day and be done with it. You have done what you could; some blunders and absurdities no doubt crept in; forget them as soon as you can. Tomorrow is a new day; you shall begin it well and serenely, and with too high a spirit to be cumbered with your old nonsense.” — Ralph Waldo Emerson\u003c/td\u003e\n      \u003c/tr\u003e\n      \u003ctr\u003e\n          \u003ctd\u003e“Statistics are like lungis. What they reveal is suggestive, what they hide is vital”.\u003c/td\u003e\n      \u003c/tr\u003e\n      \u003ctr\u003e\n          \u003ctd\u003e“The goal is not to be consistently right, but to be right enough when it matters.” - \u003cem\u003eDon\u0026rsquo;t remember where I got this.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\n      \u003c/tr\u003e\n      \u003ctr\u003e\n          \u003ctd\u003e“If you don\u0026rsquo;t bet, you can\u0026rsquo;t win. If you lose all your chips, you can\u0026rsquo;t bet.” - Larry Hite\u003c/td\u003e\n      \u003c/tr\u003e\n      \u003ctr\u003e\n          \u003ctd\u003e[[20250507155203 QUOTE.md|The best thing about reading is not that it makes you smart — it doesn\u0026rsquo;t. What it does, though, is give you some perspective and change the way you think.- \u003ca href=\"https://tradingqna.com/u/bhuvan\"\u003e@Bhuvan\u003c/a\u003e]]\u003c/td\u003e\n      \u003c/tr\u003e\n      \u003ctr\u003e\n          \u003ctd\u003e“Incentives drive everything, and most of us underestimate what we\u0026rsquo;d be willing to do if the incentives were right.” - Morgan Housel\u003c/td\u003e\n      \u003c/tr\u003e\n      \u003ctr\u003e\n          \u003ctd\u003eNot having FOMO (fear of missing out) is the most important financial skill. It\u0026rsquo;s crucial for building wealth. If you are susceptible to FOMO, it\u0026rsquo;s hard to accumulate significant wealth over time. - Morgan Housel\u003c/td\u003e\n      \u003c/tr\u003e\n      \u003ctr\u003e\n          \u003ctd\u003eBe fearful when others are greedy \u0026amp; greedy when others are fearful - Warren Buffett\u003c/td\u003e\n      \u003c/tr\u003e\n      \u003ctr\u003e\n          \u003ctd\u003e\u003cul\u003e\u003cli\u003eAs for history, we are living in its ruins. And as for biographies, we are living with the consequences of all the decisions ever made in them. I tend not to read them for pleasure. It\u0026rsquo;s not unlike carefully scrutinizing the map when one has already reached the destination.\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;You can get a good deal from rehearsal, If it just has the proper dispersal. You would just be an ass, To do it en masse, Your remembering would turn out much worsal.\u0026rdquo; Ulrich Neisser\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003eAdmiration is a state furthest away from understanding. - Ruth Bader Ginsburg\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003eDon\u0026rsquo;t be distracted by emotions like anger, envy, resentment. This just zap energy and time. - Ruth Bader Ginsburg\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003eYou can\u0026rsquo;t have it all, at once. - Ruth Bader Ginsburg\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003eSo that\u0026rsquo;s the dissenter\u0026rsquo;s hope; that they are writing not for today, but for tomorrow. - Ruth Bader Ginsburg\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ul\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\n      \u003c/tr\u003e\n  \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e%% DATAVIEW_PUBLISHER: end %%\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Quotes"},{"content":" https://kayoanime.com https://animekai.to/home ","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/watch-low-cost-or-free-anime-tv-shows-or-movies/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://kayoanime.com\"\u003ehttps://kayoanime.com\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://animekai.to/home\"\u003ehttps://animekai.to/home\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e","title":"Watch Low Cost or Free Anime, TV Shows or Movies."},{"content":"Battery anxiety is real. Here is a quick checklist of settings to flip when your iPhone is draining faster than you would like.\nAlso see: protect-your-iPhone-from-theft\nTurn off Background App Refresh Turn Auto App Updates in Setting for App Store Turn On Content Blockers in Safari Turn on Auto Brightness and dim the Brightness too. Reduce Motion and other Transitions. Find Battery Killers in Battery in Settings. Deny locations for Individual Apps. Turn Email Push off and Reduce the auto update frequency for emails. Lower Auto Lock timer. Turn Airdrop off. Source(Archived)\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/iphone-battery-saving-01KKZ8CX/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eBattery anxiety is real. Here is a quick checklist of settings to flip when your iPhone is draining faster than you would like.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlso see: protect-your-iPhone-from-theft\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTurn off Background App Refresh\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTurn Auto App Updates in Setting for App Store\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTurn On Content Blockers in Safari\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTurn on Auto Brightness and dim the Brightness too.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eReduce Motion and other Transitions.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eFind Battery Killers in Battery in Settings.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eDeny locations for Individual Apps.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTurn Email Push off and Reduce the auto update frequency for emails.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eLower Auto Lock timer.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTurn Airdrop off.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://www.lifewire.com/tips-to-extend-iphone-battery-life-1999884\"\u003eSource\u003c/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://web.archive.org/web/20221120/https://www.lifewire.com/tips-to-extend-iphone-battery-life-1999884\"\u003e(Archived)\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"iPhone battery saving tips"},{"content":"When you look at the NIFTY 50, you\u0026rsquo;re not seeing the full picture of India\u0026rsquo;s economy. You\u0026rsquo;re seeing banks, IT giants, and energy companies—but entire sectors that dominate daily life are completely missing. This isn\u0026rsquo;t a flaw; it\u0026rsquo;s an opportunity.\nThe Indian stock market has a structural gap. While the NIFTY 500 is dominated by financial services (35-40% weightage), other economically massive sectors have virtually zero representation. As these sectors formalize and go public over the coming years, the market\u0026rsquo;s investable universe will expand significantly.\nWhat\u0026rsquo;s missing from the indices Major Indian indices capture only a fraction of the economy. Here are twelve high-growth sectors with minimal or no representation:\nEducation ($125 billion by 2032) India\u0026rsquo;s education sector is projected to grow from $48.9 billion in 2023 to $125.8 billion by 2032. Yet there are no major listed education companies. BYJU\u0026rsquo;s collapsed from a $22 billion valuation to near-zero. Unacademy was just acquired by upGrad at a 90% markdown from its 2021 peak. The sector\u0026rsquo;s giants—PhysicsWallah, upGrad—remain private.\nRestaurant chains ($20 billion+ market) India has one of the world\u0026rsquo;s fastest-growing QSR markets, expanding at 15-20% annually. Yet Jubilant FoodWorks (Domino\u0026rsquo;s India) and Devyani International (KFC, Pizza Hut) are small-caps that don\u0026rsquo;t qualify for major indices. Despite operating thousands of outlets nationwide, they\u0026rsquo;re invisible to most index investors.\nGaming ($5 billion by 2028) Online gaming is growing at 30%+ annually, but regulatory headwinds have suppressed the sector. The Online Gaming Bill 2025 and 40% GST on casinos have kept stocks like Nazara Technologies in check. The sector has potential, but needs policy clarity.\nPayment solutions ($50 billion+ fintech sector) India\u0026rsquo;s digital payments volume exceeds $10 trillion annually. UPI processes over 10 billion transactions monthly. Yet PayTM— the only major listed fintech—is trading 63% below its IPO price and struggling with profitability.\nThe real giants remain private: PhonePe ($12 billion valuation), Razorpay ($7.5 billion), and Pine Labs ($3.5 billion IPO planned). When these list, they will immediately qualify for major indices.\nQuick commerce ($6 billion+, 50% growth) Zepto, Blinkit, and Instamart are redefining retail, but pure-play quick commerce companies remain private. Exposure is only available through food delivery apps that acquired these units.\nAnd more\u0026hellip; The list continues: pet care ($800 million+, 20% CAGR), cybersecurity ($4 billion+), AgriTech ($25 billion opportunity), waste management ($15 billion by 2030), matrimony ($50 billion wedding industry), and space/aerospace ($44 billion by 2033). Each represents billions in economic value with virtually no listed representation.\nThe IPO pipeline: delays but inevitable Inc42\u0026rsquo;s 2026 IPO Tracker shows 48+ startups queuing for IPOs. However, the West Asia conflict has caused delays—weakness in the rupee and stock valuations have pushed timelines to late 2026 or 2027.\nThis delay doesn\u0026rsquo;t change the thesis; it extends the runway. When these companies eventually list, they will fundamentally alter index composition. PhonePe alone, at $12 billion, would likely enter the NIFTY 50 immediately.\nMarket cap to GDP: misleading metrics India\u0026rsquo;s market cap to GDP ratio sits at approximately 130%—appearing expensive compared to the global average of ~100%. But this metric is misleading for three reasons:\nOrganized sector gap: India\u0026rsquo;s formal economy represents only 15-20% of total activity. As formalization increases, listed market cap naturally expands.\nPrivate market dominance: Many of India\u0026rsquo;s largest companies—PhonePe, Razorpay, Reliance Retail, various unicorns—remain private. Their eventual listings will significantly expand the listed universe.\nSector underrepresentation: The missing sectors discussed above represent trillions in economic value simply not captured in current calculations.\nThe US trades at 160-170% of GDP with a mature, fully formalized economy. India at 130% with massive sectors still private suggests room for expansion, not contraction.\nWhat this means for investors For index investors: Your NIFTY 50 or NIFTY 500 fund is 35-40% financials but 0% education, 0% organized restaurants, 0% gaming, 0% quick commerce. As these sectors enter indices, composition will shift—broader diversification, but different allocations than today.\nFor active investors: The gaps represent opportunity. Small-cap restaurant chains, micro-cap gaming companies, and pre-IPO fintech access offer exposure before institutional flows arrive. The \u0026ldquo;missing sectors\u0026rdquo; today could be tomorrow\u0026rsquo;s outperformers.\nThe risks: India at 130%+ of GDP is historically expensive. Regulatory uncertainty in gaming, education\u0026rsquo;s poor governance track record, and IPO timing delays are real challenges. Some sectors face intense global competition where Indian companies may not emerge as winners.\nThe bottom line The Indian market has a long runway not because current indices are undervalued, but because they don\u0026rsquo;t yet capture the economy\u0026rsquo;s full breadth. Twelve major sectors—representing hundreds of billions in value—have virtually no representation in indices tracking \u0026ldquo;the Indian market.\u0026rdquo;\nAs these sectors formalize and list over the coming years, the investable universe will expand dramatically. The NIFTY 500 of 2030 will look fundamentally different from today\u0026rsquo;s—less banking-heavy, more sectorally diverse, more representative of the actual economy.\nThis creates both opportunity and warning. Opportunity: exposure to these sectors before they\u0026rsquo;re widely owned. Warning: today\u0026rsquo;s index allocations won\u0026rsquo;t represent tomorrow\u0026rsquo;s market. The \u0026ldquo;Indian market\u0026rdquo; is still being built.\nData sources Source Data Type URL NSE India Sectoral indices coverage https://www.nseindia.com/static/products-services/indices-strategy Inc42 2026 IPO Tracker https://inc42.com/features/indian-startup-ipo-tracker-2026/ Business Today Market cap/GDP ratio (March 2026) https://www.businesstoday.in/bt-tv/whats-hot/video/market-capitalization-of-companies-listed-on-nse-now-exceeds-130-of-gdp-tuhin-kanta-pandey-519773-2026-03-09 Nikkei Asia IPO delays due to West Asia conflict https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/ipo/india-startups-delay-listings-on-previous-ipo-flops-iran-volatility LiveMint IPO market slowdown https://www.livemint.com/companies/ipo-market-slowdown-india-companies-delay-listings-west-asia-war-11775037366684.html ETBFSI Fintech IPO delays https://bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/articles/fintechs-go-easy-on-ipo-plans-as-war-rattles-stock-markets/129966227 LiveMint upGrad-Unacademy acquisition https://www.livemint.com/companies/upgrad-to-pay-2-055-crore-for-unacademy-11774522629699.html Simply Wall St PayTM market cap data https://www.simplywall.st/stocks/in/diversified-financials/nse-paytm/one97-communications-shares Planify PhonePe unlisted shares research https://www.planify.in/research-report/phonepe/ Planify Razorpay unlisted shares research https://www.planify.in/research-report/razorpay/ Based on research conducted April 3, 2026. Market data current as of publication date.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/indian-market-runway-growth-blog-post-217ae00d/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eWhen you look at the NIFTY 50, you\u0026rsquo;re not seeing the full picture of India\u0026rsquo;s economy. You\u0026rsquo;re seeing banks, IT giants, and energy companies—but entire sectors that dominate daily life are completely missing. This isn\u0026rsquo;t a flaw; it\u0026rsquo;s an opportunity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Indian stock market has a structural gap. While the NIFTY 500 is dominated by financial services (35-40% weightage), other economically massive sectors have virtually zero representation. As these sectors formalize and go public over the coming years, the market\u0026rsquo;s investable universe will expand significantly.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Why the Indian stock market still has a massive runway for growth"},{"content":"Kind of a mindfuck movie.\nI watched Bandersnatch last night and I\u0026rsquo;m still trying to process what the fuck just happened. It\u0026rsquo;s one of those movies that doesn\u0026rsquo;t just entertain you—it makes you question everything about choice, free will, and whether any of us are actually in control of our own lives.\nThe premise seems simple enough at first. You\u0026rsquo;re following this game developer in the 1980s who\u0026rsquo;s trying to build an interactive game based on a choose-your-own-adventure novel. But then the movie starts making you make choices. Do you want cereal or sugar puffs? Do you take the job or walk away? And suddenly you realize you\u0026rsquo;re not just watching a movie about choices—you\u0026rsquo;re complicit in whatever happens next.\nBut here\u0026rsquo;s where it gets really fucked up.\nI really don\u0026rsquo;t understand if the characters were inside a game or if it was an inception kind of movie. A game inside a game inside a game, or you could say each one of them was living inside a simulation of a kind. The protagonist starts realizing he\u0026rsquo;s being controlled by someone—by us, the viewers. He starts seeing patterns, questioning his reality, trying to break free from whatever force is making him choose between Frosties and Sugar Puffs.\nAnd that made me think—are we any different?\nWe go through life thinking we\u0026rsquo;re making our own decisions, but how much of it is just programming? How much is conditioning from our parents, our culture, our environment? Are we just characters in someone else\u0026rsquo;s story, following paths that were predetermined long before we were born?\nThe movie plays with this simulation theory idea hard. There\u0026rsquo;s this moment where the protagonist is talking to his therapist and he realizes the whole world is just\u0026hellip; code. Just something someone else is running. And the look on his face—it\u0026rsquo;s terror mixed with this horrible understanding. Like finally seeing the Matrix for what it is.\nWhat makes Bandersnatch so brilliant—and so disturbing—is that it forces you to participate in the very thing it\u0026rsquo;s criticizing. You\u0026rsquo;re making choices for this character, deciding his fate, but you\u0026rsquo;re also trapped in the same system. You can\u0026rsquo;t stop watching. You can\u0026rsquo;t look away. You\u0026rsquo;re part of the simulation too.\nIt\u0026rsquo;s the kind of movie that makes you paranoid for days afterward. Every choice you make—coffee or tea, left or right, stay or go—you start wondering if it even matters. Or if you\u0026rsquo;re just following a script you can\u0026rsquo;t see.\nFuck. I need to go watch something light now. Maybe a sitcom or something. This movie just sits with you.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/bandersnatch-01KKMYF1/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eKind of a mindfuck movie.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI watched Bandersnatch last night and I\u0026rsquo;m still trying to process what the fuck just happened. It\u0026rsquo;s one of those movies that doesn\u0026rsquo;t just entertain you—it makes you question everything about choice, free will, and whether any of us are actually in control of our own lives.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe premise seems simple enough at first. You\u0026rsquo;re following this game developer in the 1980s who\u0026rsquo;s trying to build an interactive game based on a choose-your-own-adventure novel. But then the movie starts making \u003cem\u003eyou\u003c/em\u003e make choices. Do you want cereal or sugar puffs? Do you take the job or walk away? And suddenly you realize you\u0026rsquo;re not just watching a movie about choices—you\u0026rsquo;re complicit in whatever happens next.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Black mirror: Bandersnatch - the interactive nightmare that broke my brain"},{"content":"Really a mind-bending movie.\nI went into Fractured completely blind. Netflix recommended it, I saw Sam Worthington was in it, thought \u0026ldquo;sure, why not.\u0026rdquo; I expected a standard missing-person thriller. Maybe some conspiracy stuff. Hospital cover-up, shady doctors, the usual.\nWhat I got was something that made me question my own perception for two hours straight.\nThe setup is deceptively simple. A family—dad, mom, young daughter—are driving home from a Thanksgiving trip. They stop at a rest area. The daughter gets hurt. They rush to the nearest hospital. The mom takes the daughter downstairs for a scan. The dad waits.\nAnd waits.\nAnd waits.\nWhen he goes looking for them, the hospital staff claim they never existed. No record of admission. No sign of his wife or daughter. Just an empty hallway and increasingly hostile medical staff telling him he\u0026rsquo;s confused, he\u0026rsquo;s tired, he\u0026rsquo;s imagining things.\nTill the end, you feel like something is wrong with the hospital or other people who are at fault, but in the end, you realize it\u0026rsquo;s the guy who is at fault.\nHere\u0026rsquo;s what makes this movie so fucking brilliant—it puts you inside the protagonist\u0026rsquo;s fractured mind without you even realizing it. You\u0026rsquo;re experiencing the story through his eyes, and his eyes are lying to him. So they\u0026rsquo;re lying to you too.\nThe hospital becomes this space where reality keeps slipping. One minute there\u0026rsquo;s a receptionist who remembers them. The next, that same receptionist has never seen them. The elevator goes to the basement but the basement doesn\u0026rsquo;t exist. Security footage shows nothing. Everything that should prove his sanity instead undermines it.\nAnd the movie keeps giving you these moments where you think \u0026ldquo;Okay, NOW I understand what\u0026rsquo;s happening.\u0026rdquo; The doctors are organ traffickers. It\u0026rsquo;s a conspiracy. The hospital is covering something up.\nBut that\u0026rsquo;s the trap. The movie wants you to hold onto that hope of an external villain because it mirrors exactly what the protagonist is doing. He\u0026rsquo;s constructed a narrative where everyone else is the problem. The hospital is evil. The staff are liars. His family has been taken. He\u0026rsquo;s the only sane one in an insane world.\nSound familiar? How many times have we convinced ourselves that we\u0026rsquo;re right and everyone else is wrong? That the problem is external, not internal? That if we just try hard enough, push hard enough, we\u0026rsquo;ll find the truth we want to exist?\nSam Worthington is phenomenal here. He plays this ordinary guy unraveling in real-time. You see the desperation in his eyes, the way he keeps doubling down on his version of reality even as the evidence mounts against it. There\u0026rsquo;s a scene where he\u0026rsquo;s trying to convince a security guard to check the cameras, and the pleading in his voice—it\u0026rsquo;s heartbreaking because you know he\u0026rsquo;s genuinely terrified, but you\u0026rsquo;re also realizing that he might be the thing he\u0026rsquo;s afraid of.\nThe cinematography amplifies the paranoia. Everything is slightly off. The hospital is too clean, too sterile. The lighting is harsh. Hallways seem to stretch longer than they should. Rooms feel smaller than they are. It\u0026rsquo;s visual disorientation that mirrors the mental disorientation.\nAnd at every point in the movie, you feel like there\u0026rsquo;s some other explanation, some different turn it\u0026rsquo;s going to take, but it just keeps you on the edge until the end. The movie keeps dangling these possibilities in front of you. Maybe THIS character will reveal the truth. Maybe THIS clue will prove he\u0026rsquo;s right. Maybe THIS is the moment everything makes sense.\nBut it doesn\u0026rsquo;t. It just keeps tightening the screws.\nThe supporting cast is perfect too. The way they look at him—part concern, part fear, part pity. You start to see how he looks to them. Not as a hero fighting against a corrupt system, but as a disturbed man losing his grip on reality. The shift in perspective is subtle but devastating.\nThere\u0026rsquo;s this creeping dread that builds throughout the film. Not jump-scare dread. Something deeper. The dread of realizing you\u0026rsquo;ve been wrong about everything. That the foundation you built your understanding on was never solid to begin with.\nAnd even in the end, it gave you quite the thrill to realize what happened with the guy and what actually was transpiring throughout the movie.\nThe ending hit me like a truck. Not because it was surprising—I had suspected it—but because of how inevitable it felt. All the pieces were there from the beginning. Little inconsistencies I had dismissed. Moments that didn\u0026rsquo;t quite add up. The movie wasn\u0026rsquo;t tricking me; it was showing me the truth and I refused to see it.\nThat\u0026rsquo;s the real horror of Fractured. Not the twist itself, but what it says about how we construct our realities. How we edit our memories to protect ourselves from truths we can\u0026rsquo;t handle. How grief and trauma can fracture not just our minds, but our very perception of what is real.\nThe protagonist isn\u0026rsquo;t a villain. He\u0026rsquo;s a victim of his own mind\u0026rsquo;s defense mechanisms. And watching him realize that—watching him have to confront the thing he\u0026rsquo;s been running from—is genuinely devastating.\nSo, yeah, it\u0026rsquo;s a really great movie.\nIf you like psychological thrillers that actually respect your intelligence, watch this. Don\u0026rsquo;t read spoilers. Don\u0026rsquo;t watch trailers that give away too much. Just go in knowing that nothing is what it seems, and even when you think you\u0026rsquo;ve figured it out, you probably haven\u0026rsquo;t.\nIt\u0026rsquo;s the kind of movie that stays with you. Makes you question your own memories, your own perceptions. Makes you wonder what truths you\u0026rsquo;re avoiding because facing them would break you.\nHeavy stuff for a Netflix movie I picked on a Tuesday night. But fuck, I\u0026rsquo;m glad I watched it.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/fractured/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eReally a mind-bending movie.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI went into Fractured completely blind. Netflix recommended it, I saw Sam Worthington was in it, thought \u0026ldquo;sure, why not.\u0026rdquo; I expected a standard missing-person thriller. Maybe some conspiracy stuff. Hospital cover-up, shady doctors, the usual.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat I got was something that made me question my own perception for two hours straight.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe setup is deceptively simple. A family—dad, mom, young daughter—are driving home from a Thanksgiving trip. They stop at a rest area. The daughter gets hurt. They rush to the nearest hospital. The mom takes the daughter downstairs for a scan. The dad waits.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Fractured (2019) - The Psychological Thriller That Gaslit Me"},{"content":"It started kind of slow, not really my taste, but I\u0026rsquo;m glad I stuck with it till the end because the plot twist that came at the end was really worth it.\nI\u0026rsquo;m not usually into gothic horror. Give me a slasher or psychological thriller any day, but something about Victorian-era ghost stories always felt\u0026hellip; slow. Too much atmosphere, not enough happening. Too many creaking doors and whispered prayers. So when The Others started with Nicole Kidman in this massive, dimly lit mansion with her photosensitive kids and all these rules about keeping curtains closed, I thought, \u0026ldquo;Okay, here we go. Two hours of buildup for maybe one good scare.\u0026rdquo;\nI was wrong. So fucking wrong.\nThe thing about The Others is that it understands something most horror movies forget: the scariest monsters aren\u0026rsquo;t the ones jumping out at you. They\u0026rsquo;re the ones you don\u0026rsquo;t even realize are monsters until it\u0026rsquo;s too late.\nNicole Kidman plays Grace, this devout Catholic mother trying to protect her children in this isolated mansion after World War II. Her husband is missing. The servants are\u0026hellip; strange. And there are these \u0026ldquo;others\u0026rdquo; in the house—intruders, Grace thinks—who keep leaving doors open and breaking all her carefully established rules.\nThe atmosphere is suffocating. Every room is dark. Every hallway feels too long. You can feel the isolation pressing in on these characters. And Grace is barely holding it together. She\u0026rsquo;s religious to the point of obsession, terrified of sin, terrified of anything that might corrupt her children\u0026rsquo;s souls. There\u0026rsquo;s this desperation in her performance that makes you uncomfortable because you know—you know—that something is deeply wrong, but you can\u0026rsquo;t put your finger on what.\nThe kids are photosensitive, which means they can\u0026rsquo;t be exposed to light. So the house is always dark. Always. Curtains drawn, doors closed, candles flickering. It\u0026rsquo;s claustrophobic as hell. Every scene feels like it\u0026rsquo;s happening in a tomb.\nAnd then the weird shit starts happening.\nPiano playing in empty rooms. Doors opening on their own. The daughter keeps seeing a little boy named Victor. Grace hears footsteps upstairs when no one should be there. Classic haunting stuff, right? You\u0026rsquo;ve seen it a thousand times.\nBut here\u0026rsquo;s where The Others separates itself from every other ghost movie.\nWe really got to see the other side of the world, a kind of fictional world, how ghosts live and what they could be thinking of us.\nThe movie slowly peels back layers until you realize you\u0026rsquo;ve been watching everything from the wrong perspective entirely. And when that revelation hits—when you understand what \u0026ldquo;the others\u0026rdquo; actually means—it\u0026rsquo;s like getting punched in the chest.\nI actually paused the movie when I figured it out. Just sat there staring at the screen. Because it\u0026rsquo;s not just a twist for the sake of being clever. It completely recontextualizes everything you\u0026rsquo;ve been watching. Every scene, every line of dialogue, every strange behavior from the servants—it all makes sense in the most horrifying way possible.\nWhat hit me hardest wasn\u0026rsquo;t the twist itself, but what it says about grief and denial. About how we construct realities to protect ourselves from truths we can\u0026rsquo;t face. Grace isn\u0026rsquo;t just a protective mother. She\u0026rsquo;s something else entirely, and her entire existence is built on a foundation that can\u0026rsquo;t support the weight of reality.\nWe think of ghosts as these malevolent spirits trying to scare the living, but what if they\u0026rsquo;re just\u0026hellip; confused? What if they\u0026rsquo;re victims of their own inability to accept what happened to them? What if haunting is just another form of grief?\nNicole Kidman\u0026rsquo;s performance is phenomenal. She plays Grace with this brittle intensity that makes her both sympathetic and terrifying. You understand why she\u0026rsquo;s so rigid, so controlling, so afraid. But you also see how that fear has twisted her into something monstrous. It\u0026rsquo;s a masterclass in slow-burn characterization.\nThe cinematography deserves mention too. Every frame looks like a painting. The house itself becomes a character—cavernous, dark, full of secrets. The way light is used (or rather, the absence of it) creates this visual language that tells you everything you need to know about these characters\u0026rsquo; psychology.\nBy the time the credits rolled, I had this weird mix of emotions. Horror, yes, but also profound sadness. The movie doesn\u0026rsquo;t just scare you—it makes you feel the weight of these characters\u0026rsquo; existence. Their tragedy isn\u0026rsquo;t supernatural. It\u0026rsquo;s deeply, tragically human.\nI can\u0026rsquo;t say much more without spoiling it, and you really need to go in blind. Don\u0026rsquo;t read summaries. Don\u0026rsquo;t watch trailers that show too much. Just let it unfold.\nIf you\u0026rsquo;re like me and usually avoid slower-paced horror, give this one a chance. Stick with it through the deliberate pacing, through the atmosphere-building, through the moments where you think nothing is happening. Because something is always happening. You just don\u0026rsquo;t know what you\u0026rsquo;re looking at yet.\nThe Others isn\u0026rsquo;t just a great horror movie. It\u0026rsquo;s a great movie, period. It uses the supernatural to explore the most human of experiences—loss, denial, motherhood, faith. And it does it with such elegance and restraint that when the truth finally reveals itself, it doesn\u0026rsquo;t feel like a trick. It feels inevitable.\nTrust me. It\u0026rsquo;s worth it.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/the-others/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eIt started kind of slow, not really my taste, but I\u0026rsquo;m glad I stuck with it till the end because the plot twist that came at the end was really worth it.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI\u0026rsquo;m not usually into gothic horror. Give me a slasher or psychological thriller any day, but something about Victorian-era ghost stories always felt\u0026hellip; slow. Too much atmosphere, not enough happening. Too many creaking doors and whispered prayers. So when The Others started with Nicole Kidman in this massive, dimly lit mansion with her photosensitive kids and all these rules about keeping curtains closed, I thought, \u0026ldquo;Okay, here we go. Two hours of buildup for maybe one good scare.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The Others (2001) - The Horror Movie That Flipped Everything"},{"content":" ","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/mind-blowing-video-about-the-way-we-see-the-world-01KKMYGM/","summary":"\u003cdiv style=\"position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden;\"\u003e\n      \u003ciframe allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share; fullscreen\" loading=\"eager\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/qJZ1Ez28C-A?si=kP6RE6r43u-pp628?autoplay=0\u0026amp;controls=1\u0026amp;end=0\u0026amp;loop=0\u0026amp;mute=0\u0026amp;start=0\" style=\"position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; border:0;\" title=\"YouTube video\"\u003e\u003c/iframe\u003e\n    \u003c/div\u003e","title":"Mind-blowing video about the way we see the world"},{"content":"Fear of failure.\nFear of being incompetent.\nFear of Future Uncertainty. Keeps my brain always occupied, thinking of ways to mitigate it. Does not leave me, with enough bandwidth, to feel empathy for others.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/why-i-think-i-lost-my-empathy-01KKMZ8M/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eFear of failure.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFear of being incompetent.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFear of Future Uncertainty.\u003c/strong\u003e\nKeeps my brain always occupied, thinking of ways to mitigate it. Does not leave me, with enough bandwidth, to feel empathy for others.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Why, I think, I lost my empathy？"},{"content":"\nIn interview, don\u0026rsquo;t think about being real, just fake enough to pass through.\nDon\u0026rsquo;t try to be a good guy, just be good enough, day to day.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/intentions-don-t-matter-actions-do-in-short-term-01KKMYFT/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg alt=\"Pasted image 20231117003037.png\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://s3.imavinash.net/blog/202503/20/Pasted%20image%2020231117003037.png?y0Q6m1WMri\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn interview, don\u0026rsquo;t think about being real, just fake enough to pass through.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDon\u0026rsquo;t try to be a good guy, just be good enough, day to day.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Intentions don't matter, actions do, in short term."},{"content":"Staying constantly simulated by something is a bad thing, try to get bored, it might do some good.\nWe live in age of where everything is accessible, easier to stay busy.\nDon\u0026rsquo;t think if somebody thinks otherwise, you do what is boring, boring is best.\nDo work, OR Do nothing.\n","permalink":"https://ink.imavinash.net/be-bored/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eStaying constantly simulated by something is a bad thing, try to get bored, it might do some good.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe live in age of where everything is accessible, easier to stay busy.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDon\u0026rsquo;t think if somebody thinks otherwise, you do what is boring, boring is best.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDo work, OR Do nothing.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Be Bored."}]